Finals History 2000-2012 (Week 1)

In Week 1 of the Finals we saw 1st defeat 4th, 3rd beat 2nd, 7th topple 6th, and 5th triumph over 8th.

In the context of AFL history since 2000, two of those results are relatively surprising. The Swans' victory over the Crows is only the third instance of 3rd beating 2nd recorded in that 13-season period, and Freo's win over the Cats is, similarly only the 3rd occasion on which the team finishing 7th has ended the season for the team finishing 6th.

The Hawks' victory over the Pies is less historically incongruent, with minor premiers having won two-thirds of their contests over teams finishing 4th over the past dozen seasons before this one. In 5th versus 8th clashes, which this year pitted the Eagles against the Roos, the Eagles' huge win over the Roos served only to tip the scales in favour of teams finishing higher up the ladder by 7 wins to 6, so you couldn't really claim that any ascendency had been established prior to this season by teams from either ladder position.

Looking ahead to next weekend, we have the team finishing 2nd on the ladder taking on the team finishing 7th for the first time this millenium, and the team finishing 4th up against the team finishing 5th for the sixth time, such contests having previously finished badly for the team finishing 5th on every occasion.

Generally, teams from the top half of the final 8 have had a far better time in Semi-Finals than have teams from the bottom half, the combined record of teams finishing 1st through 4th now standing at 22 wins and only 2 losses.

Looking at the performance of teams from each of the eight ladder positions that entitle a team to participate in September, we find that the overall performance of teams finishing 1st or 2nd far exceeds that of teams finishing in any other position. Teams finishing 1st or 2nd have won over 70% of the Finals in which they've played in the period 2000 to now, and have progressed to the Grand Final on nine occasions, winning five each. Between them, therefore, they've won 10 of the 12 Grand Finals so far decided in this millenium.

The only other ladder position from which a team has come and subsequently grabbed the Flag is 3rd, and this has occurred only twice. Teams finishing fourth have made it as far as the Preliminary Finals on 10 occasions and have ventured to the Granny only twice, losing on both occasions.

No team from ladder positions 5th through 8th has, as yet, made it to a Grand Final and, in fact, amongst these teams, only two of them, both having finished 6th, have progressed beyond the Semi-Finals.

Details of the progression of the Finals over seasons from 2000 to the present appear in the following table, from which you can see that: 

• teams finishing 8th have lost in Elimination Finals now in each of the past 4 seasons
• teams finishing 4th have lost in each of the past 6 seasons to the minor premiers
• teams finishing 3rd, after having lost in nine successive seasons to teams finishing 2nd, have now won in two of the last three years
• teams finishing 5th have defeated the teams finishing 8th in the previous four seasons, and have prevailed in five of the previous six seasons