MatterOfStats 2022 : Team Dashboard for Round 22

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The Ranking on Dashboard Metrics data appears below and shows that the two metrics most highly-correlated with ladder position are MoS Win Production Function Expected Wins, and Quarters Won.

Those metrics align particularly well for the teams that are currently in Finals positions, with the exceptions of Collingwood, whose scoring statistics rank them only 10th, despite their 5th-placed position and, to a lesser extent, Carlton, who rank only 10th on Quarters won. On that metric in particular, the Western Bulldogs might well be expected to have a place in the Top 8 on the ladder.

On that Win Production Function metric, every team has won plus or minus 2 games relative to expectation except Collingwood (+3.9 wins), and Port Adelaide (-2.9 wins).

The full Team Dashboard appears below and shows that, amongst other things:

  • From Round 11 to Round 22, inclusive, the teams currently in positions 3 to 8 on the Leaderboard have a collective record of only 39 Wins, 2 Draws, and 25 Losses. That’s only a 61% win percentage.

  • GWS have scored 57% of their points in the 1st half of games

  • West Coast have a percentage of only 54 in Q1s, 59 in Q2s, and 61 in Q4s

  • North Melbourne have a percentage of only 52 in Q1s, 52 in Q3s, and 46 in Q4s

  • Geelong and Sydney have outscored their opponents 3:2 in Q4s. Melbourne have done the same in Q1s.

  • Collingwood sit in 5th on the competition ladder despite having a percentage of only 104.4, which is the lowest of any team currently in the Top 8, and lower than Western Bulldogs, who sit in 9th, and Port Adelaide, who sit in 11th.

  • Port Adelaide, despite sitting in 11th place on the ladder, have conceded fewer goals than every other team except Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney, and Fremantle. They’ve also scored more goals than Fremantle, St Kilda, Adelaide, Essendon, GWS, North Melbourne and West Coast.

  • Only four teams have a current winning streak that exceeds two games: Geelong (12), Sydney (6), Richmond (3), and Adelaide (3).

  • Only three teams have a current losing streak that exceeds two games: Carlton (3), West Coast (7), and North Melbourne (4).

  • Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, and Geelong are the only teams to have outscored their opponents in each of the four quarters taken separately

  • Adelaide, Essendon, North Melbourne and West Coast are the only teams to have been outscored by their opponents in each of the four quarters taken separately

  • Geelong, at 57, have won the most quarters of any team in the competition, despite having won only 57% of their Q3s. Sydney have won 55 quarters, despite having won only 52% of their Q2s. Melbourne have won 54 quarters, despite having won only 57% of their Q4s. Richmond have won 52 quarters, despite having won only 52% of their Q4s. Brisbane Lions have won 52 quarters, despite having won only 52% of their Q2s.

  • North Melbourne have won only 20 quarters all season, and drawn one. West Coast have won only 22 quarters, and drawn two.

  • Carlton, despite sitting 8th on the ladder, have won two fewer quarters than they’ve lost.