MatterOfStats 2021 : Team Dashboard for Round 19

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Below is the latest Ranking on Dashboard Metrics data, which shows that the ordering of teams on the competition ladder is very consistent with their ordering based on the MoS Win Production Function.

The teams whose win percentages are most different from what would be expected according to that Function are:

  • Collingwood: 1.9 wins fewer than expected

  • Essendon: 1.6 wins fewer

  • Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions: 0.9 wins fewer

  • Melbourne: 1.6 wins more

  • St Kilda: 1.3 wins more

  • West Coast: 1.0 wins more

  • Fremantle 0.9 wins more

In terms of ladder position based on Expected WIns, the largest discrepancies are:

  • Collingwood: 3 places lower than expected

  • Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Essendon: 2 places lower

  • Melbourne: 3 places higher

  • GWS and St Kilda: 2 places higher

The full Team Dashboard appears below, a few of the interesting things from which are that:

  • West Coast have recorded 56.0% of their Scoring Shots as goals, Fremantle only 45.3%

  • Hawthorn’s opponents have registered 56.2% of their Scoring Shots as goals, Geelong’s only 44.9%

  • Adelaide, Carlton, Hawthorn, and North Melbourne are the only teams to have been outscored by their opponents in each of the four quarters considered separately

  • Brisbane Lions, Geelong, Melbourne, Port Adelaide are the only teams to have outscored their opponents in each of the four quarters considered separately

  • Western Bulldogs have outscored their opponents by 1.8:1 in Q4s, 1.5:1 in Q1s and Q2s, but have scored exactly the same number of points as they’ve conceded in Q3s. Their performance is in the Top 2 for Q1, Q2, and Q4, but is only 11th for Q3

  • Seven of the teams currently in the Top 8 registered wins this week

  • North Melbourne, who lie 18th on the ladder, have a record in their last five games as good as or better than the 11 teams immediately above them on the ladder