MatterOfStats 2020 : Team Dashboard for Round 5
/So far this season, giving your opponents more easily converted scoring chances, and fading away in Q4s, have had relatively little effect on team success.
I say that because the rank correlation between the teams’ ladder positions and their rank on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion is just +0.06, and that between their ladder position and rank on Q4 performances just +0.05.
Notwithstanding that first correlation, teams are still roughly in the order predicted by the MoS Win Production Function, which includes Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion as one of its inputs.
Fremantle is the only team whose actual win count differs from its forecast win count by more than a whole game. Given its scoring statistics, the Win Production Function would have it with 2.2 wins rather than just 1.
The full Team Dashboard appears below, and shows that:
No team has now won all of their Q1s, Q2s, Q3w, or Q4s
Geelong are still yet to win a Q2, Melbourne a Q3, and Essendon a Q4
North Melbourne have still scored two-thirds of their points in the second half of games, Collingwood almost two-thirds in the first half, and Sydney and the Gold Coast about two-thirds in Q2 and Q3 combined
The Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide are the only teams that have outscored their opponents in all four quarters taken individually
Adelaide is the only team that has been outscored by their opponents in all four quarters taken individually
Geelong has registered only 1 goal fewer than Adelaide has registered scoring shots, and Collingwood has conceded only 3 scoring shots more than Adelaide has conceded goals
Carlton has won only one quarter fewer than Port Adelaide, and one more than the Brisbane Lions, GWS, and St Kilda
