Measuring Strength of Schedule in Terms of Expected Wins
/A few weeks back I analysed the men’s 2025 AFL schedule with a view to determining which teams had secured relatively easier overall fixtures, and which had secured relatively more difficult overall fixtures.
We investigated various approaches there and reached some conclusions about relative team fixture difficulty, but none of the methods provided an intuitive way to interpret the outputs.
On a related note, this week I had a kind email from a reader who suggested that there might be an opportunity to continuously update teams’ ‘fixture difficulty rating’ (which is just another term for strength of schedule) during the season, as this service was frequently provided by various fantasy leagues for English Football and other sports.
All of which got me to revisiting my strength of schedule methodology.
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