Quick question: what proportion of teams that have led at the end of the 1st Quarter of a Grand Final have gone on to take the Flag? Supplementary question: how big does the Quarter-time lead need to be before the probability reaches 90%?
Read MoreI'm a sucker for a colourful chart, and today's is based on simulations using an earlier model of Home and Away team scoring, constrained by bookmaker-based empirical realities.
Read MoreI've often heard it asserted after a team's close loss that it will "bounce back harder next week". With a little work, that's a testable claim.
Read MoreWay back in 2010 I developed a model to estimate the Home team's chances of victory in-running (ie during the course of a game) based on the lead it held at the time and the time remaining in the game. In a subsequent post I investigated ways of combining the in-running projections of that model with the TAB Bookmaker's pre-game assessments in something of a proto-Bayesian way.
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