Fitting Team Winning Percentages: Alternatives to Pythagorean Expectation

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I've addressed the topic of fitting a team's winning rate as a function of its scoring behaviour before on MoS, in discussions about Win Production Functions generally and in posts about Pythagorean Expectation specifically.

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Deconstructing The 2011 TAB Sportsbet Bookmaker

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To what extent can the head-to-head prices set by the TAB Sportsbet Bookmaker in 2011 be modelled using only the competing teams' MAFL MARS Ratings, their respective Venue Experiences, and the Interstate Status of the fixture?
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