AFL Crowds and Optimal Uncertainty

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Fans the world over, the literature shows, like a little uncertainty in their sports. AFL fans are no different, as I recounted in a 2012 blog entitled Do Fans Really Want Close Games? in which I described regressions showing that crowds were larger at games where the level of expected surprisal or 'entropy' was higher.

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Entropy in AFL Scoring (Revisited)

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At the distinct risk of diving yet deeper into what was already a fairly esoteric topic, I'm going to return in this blog to the notion of entropy as it applies to VFL/AFL scoring, which I considered at some length in a previous blog. Consider yourself duly warned - this post is probably only for those of you who truly enjoyed that earlier blog.

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Does Crowd Size Affect Game Outcomes?

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Based on empirical evidence we know that there is a home ground advantage in AFL which, in part, might be attributable to the pro-Home team leanings amongst the majority of the crowd. In this blog I want to explore a slightly different question about the effects of the crowd: specifically, does the size of the crowd matter too?
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Do Fans Really Want Close Games?

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The AFL Draft is predicated on a belief that the equalisation of talent across teams across time is somehow good for the sport. It seems a reasonable premise, but how might we test it? Well, if it's true, one of the ways it should manifest is in attendance figures. Put simply: do games where the result is more uncertain draw larger crowds?
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