This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: 99% chance of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 45% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong and Gold Coast: 93-99% chance of being finalists; 60-80% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Western Bulldogs: 95% chance of being finalists; 65% chances of Top 4; 8% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions and Adelaide: about 85-90% chance of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Hawthorn, GWS, Fremantle: about 50-65% chance of being finalists; 5-15% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne: 10-25% chances of being finalists; <1-1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda, Essendon, Port Adelaide: 2-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: 99% chance of being finalists; 80-85% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast: 90-95% chance of being finalists; 60-75% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn, Adelaide, Brisbane Lions: about 70-85% chance of being finalists; 25-35% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. GWS, Fremantle, Carlton. Sydney: about 40% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

5. St Kilda, Essendon, Melbourne, Port Adelaide: 3-4% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: over 95% chance of being finalists; 80% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Gold Coast, Adelaide: 80-90% chance of being finalists; 40-50% chances of Top 4; 7-13% chances of being Minor Premier

3. GWS: about 65% chance of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Carlton: about 45% chance of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Sydney: about 25% chance of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: about 95% chance of being finalists; 75% chances of Top 4; 30% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Geelong: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn, Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists; 35-40% chances of Top 4; 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast: about 70% chance of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. GWS, Carlton: about 45-50% chance of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Sydney: about 35% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 10-20% chances of being finalists; 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1-1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: about 95% chance of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 45% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Geelong: about 85% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn, Gold Coast: about 75% chance of being finalists; 40% chances of Top 4; 8% chances of being Minor Premier

4. GWS, Adelaide, Carlton: about 60% chances of being finalists; 20-25% chances of Top 4; 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle: about 40% chances of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Port Adelaide, Sydney: about 25% chances of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda, Essendon: about 10% chances of being finalists; <1-1% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

8. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 6 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood, Geelong: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 65-80% chances of Top 4; 20-40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, GWS, Adelaide: about 70-75% chance of being finalists; 30-40% chances of Top 4; 6-9% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Gold Coast: about 60% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney, Port Adelaide: about 35-45% chances of being finalists; 9-13% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. St Kilda, Essendon: about 15-20% chances of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Richmond, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% to 1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Hawthorn Geelong: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; 50-55% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Gold Coast, GWS: about 75% chance of being finalists; 40-45% chances of Top 4; 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Adelaide: about 60% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Sydney, St Kilda: about 40-50% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon: about 15-25% chances of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. North Melbourne, Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Hawthorn: about 90% chance of being finalists; 70% chances of Top 4; 30% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Geelong: about 70-80% chance of being finalists; 40-50% chances of Top 4; 8-16% chances of being Minor Premier

3. GWS, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda: about 55-65% chances of being finalists; 20-30% chances of Top 4; 3-6% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Fremantle: about 35% chances of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Carlton, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 15-20% chances of being finalists; 2-4% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: about <1-2% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Adelaide: about 80-90% chance of being finalists; 50-70% chances of Top 4; 15-30% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Collingwood, GWS: about 60-75% chances of being finalists; 25-40% chances of Top 4; 4-9% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Sydney, St Kilda: about 45-50% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Fremantle, Carlton, Port Adelaide: about 30-35% chances of being finalists; 7-10% chances of Top 4; 1% or less chances of being Minor Premier

5. Essendon: about 15% chances of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. North Melbourne, Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: about <1-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, Geelong: about 75-90% chance of being finalists; 40-65% chances of Top 4; 10-25% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Collingwood, GWS, Western Bulldogs: about 65-70% chances of being finalists; 35% chances of Top 4; 7-8% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Gold Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide: about 40-55% chances of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; 2-5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Carlton, St Kilda, Fremantle: about 30-35% chances of being finalists; 8-11% chances of Top 4; 1% or less chances of being Minor Premier

5. Essendon, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond: about 5-15% chances of being finalists; <1 to 2% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. West Coast: about 1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Geelong: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; 50-65% chances of Top 4; 15-25% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Western Bulldogs, GWS: about 70-75% chances of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 7-11% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast: about 55-60% chances of being finalists; 25-30% chances of Top 4; 4-6% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Sydney, Carlton, Fremantle, Port Adelaide: about 30-40% chances of being finalists; 10-13% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Melbourne, Essendon, St Kilda: about 20-30% chances of being finalists; 6-8% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: about <1-10% chances of being finalists; <1-2% chances of Top 4; tiny chances of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 0 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs: about 80 to 85% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 20% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong, Port Adelaide, GWS: about 60-65% chances of being finalists; 25-35% chances of Top 4; 5-8% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, Carlton, Adelaide, Sydney: about 50% chances of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; 2-4% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Melbourne, St Kilda, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Essendon: about 25-35% chances of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne: about 1-7% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; tiny chances of being Minor Premier

As MoS forecasting of men’s AFL results enters its 20th season, welcome to a new set of ridiculously early simulations.

This year’s pre Round 0 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn: about 80% chance of being finalists; 50-60% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong, Port Adelaide, Sydney: about 60-65% chances of being finalists; 30-35% chances of Top 4; 6-8% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, Carlton, Adelaide, and GWS: about 45-50% chances of being finalists; 20-25% chances of Top 4; 3-5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Collingwood, Melbourne, St Kilda, Gold Coast, and Essendon: about 25-40% chances of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; 1-3% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Richmond, West Coast, and North Melbourne: about 1-5% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; tiny chances of being Minor Premier

MoSHBODS now has Geelong as firm favourites for the Flag, winning in just over 41% of simulation replicates. Brisbane Lions are next at just under 24%, then Sydney just under 22%, and finally Port Adelaide at 13%. At current market prices, that would make Geelong and Port Adelaide both positive expected value wagers.

MoSHBODS now has Geelong as the narrowest of favourites for the Flag, just ahead of Hawthorn, as shown in the chart below that are based on 10,000 simulations using the latest MoSHBODS Ratings and show how likely it is that each team goes out in a certain week, and who they are most likely to go out to if they do.

MoSHBODS has what I think are fairly described as interesting ideas about the 2024 Finals series, and has Port Adelaide as firm favourites for the Flag, but also as very nervous should the Hawks or the Dogs be the team they face in the Grand Final as you can see in the chart below that are based on 10,000 simulations using the latest MoSHBODS Ratings and show how likely it is that each team goes out in a certain week, and who they are most likely to go out to if they do.

(It also shows which teams they are most likely to defeat in the Grand Final when that is their outcome.)

This year’s post Round 23 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; near certain of being Minor Premier

2. Port Adelaide: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; tiny chances of being Minor Premier

3. GWS: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

4. Geelong: certain of being finalists; 90% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

5. Brisbane Lions: certain of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs: 95-99% chances of being finalists; 0.3-1% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Carlton: 80% chances of being finalists; tiny chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Fremantle: 25% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

9. Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne, and Richmond: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

   (NB Whilst Collingwood are, mathematically, capable of playing Finals, the circumstances required to make that occur are extremely unlikely to occur. The best chance is for Fremantle and Carlton to lose, and Collingwood to win, and for the Carlton and Collingwood margins to be such that Collingwood closes a percentage gap of almost 11. That would require the respective margins to total something close to 200 points.)

This year’s post Round 22 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: certain of being finalists; near certain of Top 4; 80% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong and Port Adelaide: near certain of being finalists; 80-85% chances of Top 4; 7% chances of being Minor Premier

3. GWS and Brisbane Lions: near certain of being finalists; 60-65% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs: 90-95% chances of being finalists; 0.5-2% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle and Carlton: 50-60% chances of being finalists; tiny to 5% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Essendon and Collingwood: 2-5% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Gold Coast: snowball’s chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4 or of being Minor Premier

8. Melbourne, St Kilda, Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne, and Richmond: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 21 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney and Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; 90-95% chances of Top 4; 40-50% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Port Adelaide, Geelong, and Western Bulldogs: 95% chances of being finalists; 40-60% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, GWS, and Carlton: 75-80% chances of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; tiny-1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Hawthorn: 50% chances of being finalists; tiny chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

5. Essendon: 20% chances of being finalists; tiny chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Collingwood: 5% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4 or of being Minor Premier

7. Melbourne: tiny chance of being finalists, no chance of Top 4 or Minor Premier

8. Gold Coast, St Kilda, Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne, and Richmond: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 20 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists; 99% chances of Top 4; 82% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions and Fremantle: 94-98% chances of being finalists; 60-75% chances of Top 4; 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Carlton, Geelong, and Western Bulldogs: 90% chances of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 0.2-1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and GWS: 60-70% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

5. Essendon, Melbourne, Collingwood, and Gold Coast: 5-10% chances of being finalists; slim chances of Top 4; no chances of being Minor Premier

6. St Kilda, Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: slim to no chance of being finalists, no chance of Top 4 or Minor Premier