2024 : Simulating the Finals After Round 26

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MoSHBODS now has Geelong as firm favourites for the Flag, winning in just over 41% of simulation replicates. Brisbane Lions are next at just under 24%, then Sydney just under 22%, and finally Port Adelaide at 13%. At current market prices, that would make Geelong and Port Adelaide both positive expected value wagers.

All of that and more is revealed in the chart below, which is based on 10,000 simulations using the latest MoSHBODS Ratings and shows how likely it is that each team goes out in a certain week, and who they are most likely to go out to if they do.

(It also shows which teams they are most likely to defeat in the Grand Final when that is their outcome.)

In terms of probability of making the Grand Final, we have:

  • Sydney 66%

  • Geelong 65%

  • Brisbane Lions 35%

  • Port Adelaide 35%

GRAND FINAL PAIRINGS

Finally, here are the estimated probabilities for each of the 4 possible Grand Final pairings.

  • Geelong v Sydney: 43% of Grand Finals (Geelong wins 65% / Sydney wins 35%)

  • Sydney v Brisbane Lions: 23% of Grand Finals (Brisbane Lions win 69% / Sydney wins 31%)

  • Geelong v Port Adelaide: 22% of Grand Finals (Geelong win 61% / Port Adelaide wins 39%)

  • Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions: 12% of Grand Finals (Brisbane Lions win 63% / Port Adelaide wins 37%)