2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R3

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This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Adelaide: about 80-90% chance of being finalists; 50-70% chances of Top 4; 15-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Collingwood, GWS: about 60-75% chances of being finalists; 25-40% chances of Top 4; 4-9% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Sydney, St Kilda: about 45-50% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Fremantle, Carlton, Port Adelaide: about 30-35% chances of being finalists; 7-10% chances of Top 4; 1% or less chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Essendon: about 15% chances of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. North Melbourne, Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: about <1-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • St Kilda: 16% point increase (to 46%) in probability of playing Finals; 8% point increase (to 16%) of finishing top 4

  • Gold Coast: 14% point increase (to 69%) in probability of playing Finals; 11% increase (to 36%) of finishing top 4

DECREASES

  • Port Adelaide: 14% point decrease (to 28%) in probability of playing Finals; 8% point decrease (to 7%) of finishing top 4

(Note that I’ve now included a measure of the effective number of ladder positions that a team is vying for. This is the inverse Herfindahl-Hirschman index as discussed here)

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order:

  • Hawthorn

  • Brisbane Lions

  • Geelong

  • Collingwood

  • Western Bulldogs

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are very similar to last week’s and have that:

  • There’s still about a 7-in-20 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s now about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s still about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages