2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 3
/This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Melbourne and GWS: 80-85% chances of being finalists; 55-60% chances of Top 4; 20% chances of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, Geelong, Carlton, Sydney, and Port Adelaide: 65-75% chances of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 8% to 13% chances of being Minor Premier
Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast: 45-50% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 2% to 4% chances of being Minor Premier
St Kilda, Collingwood, Adelaide, and Brisbane Lions: 30-40% chances of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; up to 2% chances of being Minor Premier
Essendon, Richmond, and Hawthorn: 10-20% chances of being finalists; 2-5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
North Melbourne and West Coast: 1-3% chances of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4 or of being Minor Premier
LADDER FINISHES
The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.
Sydney’s, St Kilda’s, and Brisbane Lions’ Finals chances fell most substantially this week, while Fremantle’s, Carlton’s, and Collingwood’s rose most substantially.
There are now eight teams with about a 50% or higher chance of playing Finals, and 13 with about a 1-in-3 chance or higher. There are also eight teams with a 20% or higher chance of finishing Top 4, and five with a 10% or better chance of taking the Minor Premiership.
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
The HHI figures for these pre-season simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:
How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for
How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position
This week’s eight games had relatively little impact on overall ladder uncertainty, with the majority of teams effectively fighting for between 13 and 16 ladder positions, and most ladder positions having 13 to 16 teams effectively fighting for them.
On the teams side, the largest exceptions are West Coast, North Melbourne, GWS, and Hawthorn, while on the ladder positions side, the largest exceptions are 1st, 2nd, 16th, 17th, and 18th.
Tthe ladder positions with the most uncertainty are those in the middle of the table, from about 5th to 14th.
We also see that the average team is effectively competing for about 12.4 positions, and the average ladder position has about 12.5 teams competing for it. Both of these metrics are down by about 0.4 this week.
WINS AND LADDER POSITION
Let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.
Based on the simulations, we can say that:
For teams finishing 8th in a replicate: 29% had 12 wins, 38% had 13 wins, and 8.5% had 12.5 wins (also, 4% had 11 wins, and 11% had 14 wins). These are all very similar to last week’s numbers.
For teams finishing 4th in a replicate: 32% had 15 wins, 31% had 16 wins, and 7% had 15.5 wins (also, 9% had 14 wins, and 4% had 14.5 wins). These are also all very similar to last week’s numbers.
Looked at another way:
For teams finishing win 11 wins: 4% made Finals
For teams finishing win 12 wins: 32% made Finals
For teams finishing win 13 wins: 79% made Finals
For teams finishing win 14 wins: 98% made Finals and 9% finished Top 4
For teams finishing win 15 wins: 43% finished Top 4
For teams finishing win 16 wins: 83% finished Top 4
Here’s what it looks like on a team-by-team basis:
LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.
So, our current estimates are that:
There’s still about a 3-in-8 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages
There’s still about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages
There’s still about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages
