2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 2

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This year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. GWS, Sydney, and Melbourne: 80% chances of being finalists; 50-55% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Port Adelaide, Geelong, Fremantle, and Carlton: 60-70% chances of being finalists; 30-40% chances of Top 4; 7.5% to 12% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. St Kilda, Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, and Adelaide: 40-50% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 2% to 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Collingwood, Essendon, and Hawthorn: 15-25% chances of being finalists; 4-6% chances of Top 4; 0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Richmond and North Melbourne: 7-10% chances of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; very slim chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast: 1.5% chance of being a finalist; tiny chance of Top 4 or of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.

Gold Coast’s, Adelaide’s, and Collingwood’s Finals chances fell most substantially this week, and Geelong’s and Western Bulldogs’, and St Kilda’s rose most substantially.

There are now nine teams with about a 50% or higher chance of playing Finals, and 12 with a 40% or higher chance. There are also nine teams with a 20% or higher chance of finishing Top 4, and seven with about a 1-in-14 or better chance of taking the Minor Premiership.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for these pre-season simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:

  • How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for

  • How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position

Eight more games has had a significant impact on ladder uncertainty, with the majority of teams noweffectively fighting for between 14 and 16.5 ladder positions, and most ladder positions still having 15 to 16.5 teams effectively fighting for them.

On the teams side, the largest exceptions are West Coast, North Melbourne, and GWS, while and on the ladder positions side, the largest exceptions remain 1st, 17th, and 18th.

We see, as we do every year, that the ladder positions with the most uncertainty are those in the middle of the table, from about 5th to 14th.

We also see that the average team is effectively competing for about 13 positions, and the average ladder position has about 13 teams competing for it. Both of these metrics are down by about 1 this week.

(Incidentally, if you wanted to apply this notion of uncertainty purely to the issue of whether a team will or will not play finals, the level of uncertainty is directly proportional to how distant form 50% is a team’s probability of playing Finals. So, St Kilda and the Brisbane Lions have most uncertainty, followed by Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast, The teams with least uncertainty are GWS, Sydney, West Coast, and North Melbourne.)

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

Let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.

The chart below reveals what the simulations suggest about that recalibration.

Based on the simulations, we can say that:

  • For teams finishing 8th in a replicate: 28% had 12 wins, 37% had 13 wins, and 9% had 12.5 wins (also, 5% had 11 wins, and 12% had 14 wins). These are all very similar to last week’s numbers.

  • For teams finishing 4th in a replicate: 30% had 15 wins, 31% had 16 wins, and 7% had 15.5 wins (also, 8% had 14 wins, and 4% had 14.5 wins). These are also all very similar to last week’s numbers.

Looked at another way:

  • For teams finishing win 11 wins: 5% made Finals

  • For teams finishing win 12 wins: 33% made Finals

  • For teams finishing win 13 wins: 78% made Finals

  • For teams finishing win 14 wins: 98% made Finals

Here’s what it looks like on a team-by-team basis:

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are that:

  • There’s still about a 3-in-8 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s still about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s now about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages