AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 12

In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Week 2 of the Finals and project the outcomes for the remainder of the Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

The results this week are as shown below.

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These results suggest that:

• North Melbourne remain heavy favourities to win the Grand Final, with Brisbane and Adelaide both roughly equal second favourites but most likely to go out in a Preliminary Final (although only one of them can)

• Port Adelaide is on the fourth line and also most likely to go out in a Preliminary Final