AFLW 2024 - Round 13 (Week 3 of the Finals)

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WoSHBODS has the Roos v Power game as a 7-goal blowout, and the Lions v Crows games as a coin-toss.

(Also, because it simulates every contest in coming up with a probability estimate, and because that process produces a distribution of final margins that is not symmetric, it has Brisbane’s average margin as +0.2 but winning only 49% of the time.)

WoSHBODS Wagering

WoSHBODS has three wagers this week, one on Adelaide and two on North Melbourne, one of which was subjected to significant shenanigans:

  • 6.5% on North Melbourne @ $1.13

  • 2.6% on North Melbourne -23.5 @ $1.88 plus 1.5% on North Melbourne -24.5 @ $1.90 plus 0.4% on North Melbourne -24.5 @ $1.85

  • 0.2% on Adelaide @ $2.00

A best case result will see the Combined Portfolio price rise by just under 3c while a worst case set of results will see it fall by just over 3c.