AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 2

As foreshadowed last week, this week sees large movements in WoSHBODS’ assessment of the 18 teams’ Finals chances, as recorded in the table below (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

(We should also expect fairly large movements again next week.)

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So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:

• Tier 1 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Melbourne, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Geelong, and Gold Coast

• Tier 2 (50-65% chances to play Finals): Essendon, Brisbane, Richmond, and Sydney

• Tier 3 (15-40% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, Carlton, and St Kilda

• Tier 4 (5-10% chances to play Finals): Fremantle and Hawthorn

• Tier 5 (1% or less chances to play Finals): Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, GWS, and West Coast

And, here’s what we have for the Finals.

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