AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 10

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Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW, now only for the Finals, (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

WoSHBODS, broadly speaking, orders the remaining teams in terms of Flag chances, as follows:

  • 40%: Melbourne

  • 20-30%: Adelaide and North Melbourne

  • 10%: Brisbane

  • 0.5-1%: Gold Coast, Geelong

  • Essentially 0%: Essendon, Sydney

The market currently orders them this way:

  • 35%: Melbourne

  • 25%: Adelaide

  • 17%: Brisbane

  • 12%: North Melbourne

  • 3-5%: Gold Coast, Geelong

  • 2%: Essendon, Sydney

In percentage point terms, the largest differences are for Brisbane and North Melbourne (both 9% points)