AFLW 2023 - Round 1

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We’re back again for the 2023 AFLW season with a re-optimised WoSHBODS model and a willingness to put that model to the test against the bookmakers.

Here, then, are the Model forecasts for Round 1:

WoSHBODS forecast margins differ from the expert’s views by less than a goal in five of the games, and by between one and two goals in three other games. Only in the Fremantle v West Coast game does it get as high as almost 14 points.

At this stage, the wagering parameters mirror those being used in the AFLM in the sense that:

  • There are three Funds, Head-to-Head, Line, and Overs/Unders

  • Their weighting in the Combined Portfolio is 30% / 65% / 5% respectively

  • Head-to-Head bets are made only if the assessed edge is greater than 5% (ie Price x Estimated Probability > 1.05). Head-to-Head bets are sized so as to return a fixed amount (so, more is bet on favourites and less on underdogs). In particular, the wagers are sized to return, if successful, 2% of the orignal Fund.

  • Line bets are made only if the assessed edge is greater than 8 points. Line bets are sized to reflect the estimated edge

  • Overs/Unders bets are made only if the assessed edge is greater than 6 points. Overs/Unders bets are a fixed proportion of the original Fund (here 5%).

The only significant difference is that I’m allowing the Head-to-Head Fund to wager on away teams, which I do not do in AFLM.

At this stage, the bookmakers do not seem to be offering Totals markets on AFLW, so I may choose to revise the portfolio weights at some point if that persists.