AFLW 2022 Spring Edition - Round 14 - Results

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WoSHBODS finishes the season with an incorrect tip, an excellent Margin Absolute Error, and a quite large Total Absolute Error.

That left it with the final all-season results below.

We can break down that overall Margin MAE of 18.8 points per game into team-by-team contributions, which we do in the table at right and which shows that WoSHBODS has been particularly precise in game margins for matches involving the Dees, Dogs, Blues, Pies, and Hawks, and particularly imprecise in game margins for matches involving the Giants, Swans, and Saints.

Looking solely at the four expansion teams - none of which made finals - we have Hawthorn and Essendon well under the all-team average, Port Adelaide at just over the average, and Sydney much higher than the average.

Altogether, nine teams finish with MAEs below the all-team average, and nine with MAEs above the all-team average.

We can also break down the overall Margin MAE based on the size of the eventual victory, which we do in the table at left and which shows that, still, it has been the larger victories where the forecasts have been least accurate, and the narrower victories where they have been most accurate, although games won by between 12 and 17 points have still seen somewhat lower-than-expected accuracy.

WoSHBODS has tended to be more precise in its margin forecasts in games that were won by relatively large margins. It finishes 31.5 from 50 (63%) in games won by under 3 goals, and 42.5 from 49 (87%) in games won by 3 goals or more.

The Log Probability Scores can also be analysed by team, and the results of doing this are shown in the table at right where we assign one half of the LPS for a game to each of the two teams.

Here we see that WoSHBODS’ probability estimates have resulted in strong LPS returns from the Dees, Dogs, Swans, Crows, Pies, Dockers, and Roos, and weak and negative returns from the Eagles, Tigers, and Blues.

Overall, there have been positive LPS contributions from 15 teams, and negative contributions from only three.

And, with that, it is goodbye from me for the second AFLW season of 2022.