AFLW 2022 Spring Edition - Round 11 - Results

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WoSHBODS was definitely too heavy-handed with Venue Performance Values (VPV) this week, ending up with a Margin MAE of 25.4 points per game as a result, but it did tip all four winners and, such was its confidence, also returned a highly positive log probability score. Its Totals MAE was a very respectable 12.5 points per game, although the VPV values used meant the Away Team Score forecasts were relatively poor.

We can break down that overall Margin MAE of 19.3 points per game into team-by-team contributions, which we do in the table at right and which shows that WoSHBODS has been particularly precise in game margins for matches involving the Dogs, Dees, Blues, Pies, Hawks, and Tigers, and particularly imprecise in game margins for matches involving the Crows, Giants, Swans, and Saints.

Looking solely at the four expansion teams - none of which made finals - we have Hawthorn and Essendon still well under the all-team average, Port Adelaide at just over the average, and Sydney much higher than the average.

Altogether, nine teams have MAEs below the all-team average, and nine have MAEs above the all-team average.

We can also break down the overall Margin MAE based on the size of the eventual victory, which we do in the table at left and which shows that, still, it has been the larger victories where the forecasts have been least accurate, and the narrower victories where they have been most accurate, although games won by between 12 and 17 points have seen lower-then-expected accuracy.

WoSHBODS has tended to be more precise in its margin forecasts in games that were won by relatively large margins. It is 29.5 from 47 (63%) in games won by under 3 goals, and 40.5 from 47 (86%) in games won by 3 goals or more.

The Log Probability Scores can also be analysed by team, and the results of doing this are shown in the table at right where we assign one half of the LPS for a game to each of the two teams.

Here we see that WoSHBODS’ probability estimates have resulted in strong LPS returns from the Dees, Dogs, Swans, and Dockers, and weak and negative returns from the Eagles, Blues, and Tigers.

Overall, there have been positive LPS contributions from 15 teams, and negative contributions from only three.