Round 15 is the last of the season’s truncated rounds, and its six games this week comprise four that are expected to be won by only about two-and-a-half goals or less, and two more that are expected to be won by about six-and-a-half goals. The all-game average expected margin is 16.7 points per game, which is not within a couple of points of any of the actual expected margins, demonstrating the lower utility of using means for bimodal data.
Read MoreMoSSBODS reranked just eight teams this week, and MoSHBODS only four, leaving them both now with the same Top 5 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Collingwood.
Only two teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Western Bulldogs up 2 into 2nd, and Collingwood down 2 into 5th. None moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS.
Ratings compression persists on both Systems with MoSSBODS’ 2nd and 13th separated by only 4.7 Scoring Shots (which is about 17 points), and MoSHBODS’ 2nd and 13th separated by only just over 16 points.
Read MoreAll six early-week favourites won this week, which meant that all but Consult the Ladder and Home Sweet Home tipped 6 from 6.
That made for zero movement on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard, which now sees MoSHPlay_Marg on 78.5 from 120 (65%), one tip ahead of Bookie Knows Nest and MoSSBODS_Marg. The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.4 from 6, which took the season-long figure to 75.2 from 120 (63%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Pies by 44 points (and has updated its preliminary view of the final game to Giants by 17 points).
MoSHPlay ends at Swans by 15 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Hawks by 14 points.
MoSHPlay has finished at Dogs by a goal.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the round’s six games.
There are a few more sizeable than usual differences between the twins’ and the bookmakers’ Total forecasts this week, all of which has left the twins’ average about 3 points below the bookmakers’.
Read MoreThere are only six games this week and a very mixed bag they are at that, with three games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, and the remaining three expected to be won by between about 20 and 40 points.
Read MoreMoSSBODS reranked 10 teams again this week, but MoSHBODS reranked 12, leaving them both now with only the same Top 2 of Sydney and Brisbane Lions. MoSSBODS prefers Collingwood for 3rd, while MoSHBODS likes Western Bulldogs.
Only three teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Brisbane Lions up 3 into 2nd, Western Bulldogs down 2 into 4th, and Carlton down 2 into 5th) and three did likewise on MoSHBODS (Brisbane Lions up 3 into 2nd, Essendon up 2 into 11th, and Adelaide down 2 into 14th).
Ratings compression persists on both Systems with MoSSBODS’ 1st and 12th separated by only 5.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 19 points), and MoSHBODS’ 1st and 12th separated by only just over 19 points.
Read MoreIt was another bad week for favourites, with just three of eight claiming victory, which allowed MoSHPlay_Marg to overtake Bookie Knows Best by one tip based on its 4 from 8 performance, and MoSHBODS_Marg to move up the Leaderboard with the same score.
MoSHPlay_Marg is now on 72.5 from 114 (64%), and the all-Tipster average for the round came in at 3.1 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 69.7 from 114 (61%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Dees by 2 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view on the Pies v Dees game (and it’s still and finally Blues by 9 points in tonight’s game).
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 29 points.
Some new, but still not final, MoSHPlay views on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay finishes at a contrarian Hawks by 4 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 8 points.
No change to MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of Crows by 27 points tonight, but some initial preliminary views on most of the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday game is Crows by 27 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ Totals forecasts is about 1 goal per game this week, despite the fact that the all-game averages are roughly equal at around 166 to 168 points per game.
Read MoreAll but one of this week’s eight games is expected to be won by less than about 3 goals, Thursday’s Adelaide v Richmond game being the only exception. The expected number of favourite wins is 5.1 from 8 and the average expected margin is only 12.8 points per game.
Read MoreThere was a little less volatility this week, as MoSSBODS reranked just 10 teams, and MoSHBODS only eight, leaving them both with the same Top 5 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Collingwood, and Brisbane Lions.
Only three teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Carlton up 2 into 3rd, Melbourne down 3 into 7th, and Geelong down 2 into 10th) and only two did likewise on MoSHBODS (Carlton up 3 into 3rd, and Melbourne down 5 into 9th).
Ratings compression remains on both Systems with MoSSBODS’ 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.4 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and MoSHBODS’ 1st and 10th separated by only just over 15 points.
Read MoreIn was a bad week for favourites, with just two claiming victory, allowing the targetted Head-to-Head Tipster contrarians to close the gap on Bookie Knows Best, which finds itself now tied with ENS_Linear, MoSHPlay_Marg, and MoSSBODS_Marg at the top of the Leaderboard on 68.5 from 106 (65%), and just one tip ahead of the RSMP twins
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at exactly 3 from 7, which took the season-long figure to 66.6 from 106 (63%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 14 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 14 points and has a new preliminary view on the final game of the round.
MoSHPlay finishes at Geelong by 32 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at St KIlda by 4 points.
MoSHPlay has flipped to Crows by 0.3 points.
MoSHPlay’s views on the rest of Round 12.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Port Adelaide by 5 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is a non-controversial Port Adelaide by a goal.
There are some larger differences in both directions at the individual game level again this week but, overall, the MoS twins are forecasting slightly higher Totals than the bookmakers, though still lower than the season-to-date average of 166.2 points per game.
Read MoreAll but one of this week’s seven games (yes, it’s another bye round!) is expected to be won by less than 14 points, the Geelong v Richmond game being the only exception. The expected number of favourite wins is just 4.3 from 7 and the average expected margin is only 10.2 points per game.
Read MoreThere really is no complete hierarchy of team ratings emerging as we see 12 teams changing places again on MoSSBODS and 11 teams changing places on MoSHBODS.
This week, however, the moves were, on average, smaller, with the only multi-spot movers on both Systems being:
Brisbane Lions: down two places on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS
GWS: up two places on MoSSBODS and three places on MoSHBODS
At the end of it all, both Systems have the same Top 4 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Melbourne.
On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 3.7 Scoring Shots (which is about 14 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only just over 16 points.
Read MoreSix early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, and one other bagged two, which defined the ceiling for scores this weekend. Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and the RSMP twins were the only Head-to-Head Tipsters recording that maximum, which left Bookie Knows Best in 1st place on the Leaderboard, one tip clear of ENS_Linear, and a further tip clear of the MoS family and the RSMP pair.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 5.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 63.6 from 99 (64%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s finishes at Crows by 26 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Dees by 25 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Lions by 9 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Essendon by 26 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Cats by 15 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Port Adelaide by 43 points and Carlton by 12 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Fremantle by 7 points (and has some new preliminary views on the Sunday games).
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the remaining games in Round 11.
MoSHPlay finishes at the Dogs by 4 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is the Dogs by 3 points.
There are some larger differences in both directions at the individual game level but, overall, the MoS twins are forecasting slightly lower Totals this week.
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