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June 07, 2017

2017 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders Update

June 07, 2017/ Tony Corke

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have very similar opinions about the likely Totals in all seven of this week's games, differing by no more than three points in any of them.

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June 07, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
June 06, 2017

2017 - Round 12 : Seven Games, Five Days

June 06, 2017/ Tony Corke

Doubtless there are good financial reasons for it, but the commencement of bye rounds on Thursday nights has always seemed a bit odd to me. All the moreseo this week where we also have the traditional June long-weekend Monday fixture, which means that the round's seven games are to be sprinkled across five different days.

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June 06, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 6 Comments
June 05, 2017

2017 - Team Ratings After Round 11

June 05, 2017/ Tony Corke

Port Adelaide regained top ranking on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this weekend after a 51 point and 21 scoring shot victory over the Hawks. It's now rated an 0.3 scoring shot better team than Adelaide at a neutral venue according to MoSSBODS, and a 1 point better team than Adelaide at a neutral venue according to MoSHBODS.

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June 05, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
June 04, 2017

2017 - Round 11 Results - Better Than Expected

June 04, 2017/ Tony Corke

If you'd offered me, on Thursday afternoon, a 3.4 from 6 average for the Head-to-Head Tipsters and a sub 21 all-Predictor mean absolute error (MAE) for the Margin Predictors I'm fairly certain I'd have signed for it.

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June 04, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 31, 2017

2017 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders Update

May 31, 2017/ Tony Corke

This week, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS disagree by more than 3 points about the Total in any single game only for the Cats v Crows contest, which MoSHBODS assesses a 205-point game and MoSSBODS a 200-point game.

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May 31, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 30, 2017

2017 - Round 11 : Small Round, Small Margins?

May 30, 2017/ Tony Corke

For those of us who love the 9-game form of the AFL round, the 6-game version seems like football's T20. (And, yeah, I'm going to leave that analogy alone now because I don't think it'll carry me very far).

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May 30, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 29, 2017

2017 - Team Ratings After Round 10

May 29, 2017/ Tony Corke

Adelaide did more than enough this week to convince both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS that it was the most deserving #1 team, a position previously held by Port Adelaide on both Systems.

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May 29, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 28, 2017

2017 - Round 10 Results - Gotta Be Happy With That

May 28, 2017/ Tony Corke

In a season that's been as delightfully unpredictable as this one, I think you have to nod and sagely accept a round where your best Head-to-Head Tipster (Consult The Ladder) bags 8 from 9 and your average Tipster manages 7.

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May 28, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 25, 2017

2017 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders Update

May 25, 2017/ Tony Corke

This week, the two MoS and the two bookmakers all expect the average game to produce about 182 points, though they get to that average by different routes.

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May 25, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 23, 2017

2017 - Round 10 : MoSSBODS Takes a Stand

May 23, 2017/ Tony Corke

There are very high levels of agreement amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with the only underdog forecasts coming from MoSSBODS and, of all things, C_Marg in their selections of Port Adelaide and GWS, from Consult The Ladder also in its selection of GWS, and from Home Sweet Home in its selection of Carlton. The other 75 tips are all for favourites.

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May 23, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 22, 2017

2017 - Team Ratings After Round 9

May 22, 2017/ Tony Corke

Adelaide, according to MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, didn't do quite enough in their victory over the Lions to reclaim the number 1 spot, which has now been held by Port Adelaide for the past two weeks.

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May 22, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 21, 2017

2017 - Round 9 Results - Simple Success

May 21, 2017/ Tony Corke

This week it was the turn of the RSMP Head-to-Head Tipsters to outperform the field, the pair recording the only 6 from 9 performances, which sees them now sitting one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard on 51 from 80 (64%).

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May 21, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 18, 2017

2017 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders Update II

May 18, 2017/ Tony Corke

The last two Totals markets were posted much as we expected and left MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS predicting, on average across the entire round, about an extra goal and a half per game compared to the bookmakers.

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May 18, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 18, 2017

2017 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders Update I

May 18, 2017/ Tony Corke

This weekend's football seems very likely to be rain-affected, which should provide an interesting assessment of the extent to which MoSSBODS' ignorance of weather impairs its practical efficacy as an informer for over/under wagering.

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May 18, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 16, 2017

2017 - Round 9 : Hard to Pick

May 16, 2017/ Tony Corke

Amongst this weekend's slightly truncated set of eight matches, five have bookmaker handicaps that imply the final victory margin will be under 14 points.

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May 16, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 15, 2017

2017 - Team Ratings After Round 8

May 15, 2017/ Tony Corke

The Crows, after their second successive loss - the latest one to the Dees - have surrendered their number 1 ranking on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS. That spot has been taken by their cross-town rivals, Port Adelaide.

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May 15, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 14, 2017

2017 - Round 8 Results - Everyone Takes Five

May 14, 2017/ Tony Corke

Five favourites won over the weekend, and all of the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters joined BKB in scoring five out of nine for the round.

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May 14, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
May 10, 2017

2017 - Round 8 : Overs/Unders Update

May 10, 2017/ Tony Corke

MoSSBODS and both the TAB and Centrebet bookmakers think we'll see over 200 points in one game this weekend. MoSHBODS thinks we'll see it in two.

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May 10, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 2 Comments
May 09, 2017

2017 - Round 8 : Only Haggling Over the Margins

May 09, 2017/ Tony Corke

Were it not for Home Sweet Home, this week we'd have a zero all-Tipster Disagreement Index across the Head-to-Head Tipsters.

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May 09, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 4 Comments
May 08, 2017

2017 - Team Ratings After Round 7

May 08, 2017/ Tony Corke

Though the Crows are now not as unbeatable as they seemed to be a week ago, they're still the highest rated team in the competition, according to both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS.

Read More
May 08, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
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