2017 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders Update

/

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have very similar opinions about the likely Totals in all seven of this week's games, differing by no more than three points in any of them.

They also agree that the Crows, Dockers and Power are likely to score three figures in their games, though MoSHBODS adds the Giants to that list as well. The Centrebet bookmaker concurs with MoSHBODS' list, as does the TAB bookmaker if we round up his implicit estimate of a 99.5 score for Fremantle to 100.

All four forecasters have the Crows v Saints game as the round's high scorer, and the Swans v Dogs game as the round's low scorer.

Overall, MoSSBODS has the lowest all-game average score of 181 points, Centrebet the highest of 185 points. All four expect home teams, in aggregate, to be outscored by away teams, a result that's been achieved in 5 of the 11 rounds this season (R1, R4, R6, R8 and R9).

WAGERS

Again this week Investors find themselves with three wagers, two on the under and one on the over.

The overlays for two of those three bets are unusually high: almost 13 points relative to the TAB in the Lions v Dockers game, and almost 19 points relative to Centrebet in the Blues v Giants game. Rain is forecast in Brisbane for Saturday, which might explain MoSSBODS' higher total in the Lions game, but MoSSBODS is well below the offered Total in the Blues game, so the potential for rain can't be posited as an influence there.

Last week, MoSSBODS performed extremely well relative to the other forecasters, recording the best mean absolute error (MAE) metrics for game margins, Away team scores, and Totals. It also registered a sub-10 MAE for Home team scores but was marginally outperformed by MoSHBODS' sub-9 MAE.

Taking a longer perspective, the performance data shows that across all 95 games so far this season MoSHBODS has outforecast MoSSBODS and both bookmakers on game margins, Home team and Away team scores, losing out to Centrebet and the TAB only on Totals.

MoSSBODS has outforecast the TAB bookmaker on game margins and Home team scores, and the Centrebet bookmaker on game margins and Away team scores.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now both have 50 from 95 (53%) records against TAB Totals, while MoSSBODS has a 51 from 95 (54%) record against Centrebet Totals compared to MoSHBODS' 54 and 41 (57%) record.