2017 - Round 3 : Over/Under Update
/The bookmakers have as many as five games producing over 200 points this week, the Saints v Lions game foremost among them where both the TAB and Centrebet have set the total at 206.5.
Read MoreThe bookmakers have as many as five games producing over 200 points this week, the Saints v Lions game foremost among them where both the TAB and Centrebet have set the total at 206.5.
Read MoreWe're back to Round 1 levels of disagreement this week, much of this fuelled by Consult The Ladder and Home Sweet Home amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, and by C_Marg and C_Prob elsewhere.
Read MoreAdelaide have retained number 1 ranking on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS after their 24-point and 9- Scoring Shot victory over Hawthorn.
Read MoreAfter last weekend's inauspicious start, it's a relief to report that all three forecaster families performed far better this week.
Read MoreIt usually takes a few weeks of a new season to iron out the main bugs in updated and new scripts (and why, exactly, are bugs always 'ironed'?) and to get into the swing of knowing what data goes where. This season has been no exception.
Read MoreIf you pootle around the MoS website - and, by pootle, I mean search - you'll find a number of posts using the terms 'overround' and 'vig' (or 'vigorish'). Today I want to provide a quick refresher on what those terms mean and why they should be important to you if you ever think about placing wagers of your own.
Read MoreThis week, the TAB's over/under markets went up well before Centrebet's, and Centrebet released theirs over an extended period, which means that the data in the table below spans an atypically long timespan since each market has been recorded as close to its opening as I was able.
Read MoreIt's hard to find a dissenting voice this week amongst the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters, with even Home Sweet Home tipping against the favourites in only three games.
Read MoreWe noted last year that Adelaide, as far as the MoS Team Rating Systems were concerned, were very unlucky not to progress further in the competition. Their big win over GWS this weekend only served to reinforce that view.
Read MoreFrom an accuracy point-of-view, the first round of 2017 was a poor one for the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters, though that's probably to be expected when only four favourites and an equal-favourite prevail.
Read MoreWe'll need to review our approach to the over/under market this season, I think, since, if this week is a guide, opening markets will be less generously priced.
Read MoreI'm flipping the order of the sections in the weekly Wagers & Tips blog this year, providing the tips and predictions before the wagers. I think that everyone who comes here is interested in the tips, but only a subset are interested in the wagers as well. And, populism is all the rage right now ...
Read MoreToday, a couple of new voices share their analysis here on MoS: sport lovers Declan Walpole and PhD student, Robert Nguyen, who've teamed up to have crack at rating the AFLW Teams after two full rounds, and using their ratings to predict the results for the upcoming round.
Read MoreIf history chooses to repeat one of the themes of 2016, please let it be the largely unembarrassing performances of MoS' bookmaker-input free Tipsters and Predictors, and the resultant profitability of the MoS Funds. (I'd wish for something grander on the global stage, but I suspect that's just courting disappointment.)
Read MoreBoth ChiPS and MARS expected the Swans to prevail in the Grand Final, so their loss saw them drop Ratings Points (RPs) on both Systems. Regardless, the Swans end the season as the top-rated team by ChiPS and MARS, while the Dogs finish 7th.
Read MoreSo, MoSSBODS finishes the season by tipping the winner of the Grand Final to move it three tips clear of BKB at season's end with a score of 152 from 207 (73%).
Read MoreThis year, I introduced MoSSBODS in the hope that it would, without any Bookmaker input at all, perform creditably enough in picking winners, help Investors make a little money, and, occasionally, make contrarian but, in hindsight, prescient predictions.
Read MoreNeither ChiPS nor MARS predicted either of the weekend's upsets, with the result that both of the underdog victors gained Rating Points (RPs) on the two Systems.
Read MoreClearly, not an ideal weekend for Investors as all four wagers were trousered by the Bookmaker, but it'd be a stone-cold heart that didn't rejoice at least a little at the results, especially in the Dogs' progress to a Grand Final after so, so long.
Read MoreLast weekend, both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds passed entirely on proceedings, leaving the Over/Under Fund to provide the round's only wagering action. This weekend, the opposite is true, and Investors find themselves with two head-to-head bets, two line bets, and no over/under bets at all.
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