2014 - Round 21 : Happy With The Draw
/If you're not a fan of SuperMargin wagers - and, let's be honest, who is? - this weekend might be one where you're better off doing something other than tracking the fate of MoS wagering.
Read MoreIf you're not a fan of SuperMargin wagers - and, let's be honest, who is? - this weekend might be one where you're better off doing something other than tracking the fate of MoS wagering.
Read MoreChiPS rewarded the Crows handsomely for their demolition of the Lions on Sunday, elevating them into 3rd, some four places higher than their current ladder position.
Read MoreWhen we've a wager on the last game of a round, the result of that wager has a disproportionate impact, I acknowledge, on my assessment of the entire round. So, I find myself tonight while not exactly happy with our 4.7c loss - our fourth loss in five rounds by the way - but instead with a glass half-full mentality. It could have been worse and we're still up by 4c on the season.
Actually, it could have been better too, but for a late behind in the Hawks game that tipped their victory margin out of the 40 to 49 and into the 50 to 59 point bucket. That behind cost Investors about 1.4c. Port Adelaide as well, despite eventually losing by 26 points to the Swans thanks to a late goal, could easily have lost by a couple of goals fewer and salvaged another couple of percent for Investors.
But none of that happened and so the Head-to-Head Fund, with its 3 and 3 performance, wound up losing almost 4c on the week, leaving it up now by just over 2c on the season. Also, the Line Fund recorded its second-straight worse-than-chance performance, bagging 1 from 5 wagers to drop by almost 8c on the round. It's still up by over 34c on the season though, so it's entitled to a little leeway on the run home.
That left the Margin Fund to record the week's only profit, its 1 from 6 performance enough to lift its price by 1.5c though still leave it down by almost 70c on the season.
It was a good round for head-to-head tipping, with seven of nine favourites doing as they were expected. This helped lift the all-Tipster average for the week to 6.6 from 9, the best results belonging to Bookie_9 and the three Win-based Tipsters, who all snared 8.
That result allowed Bookie_9 to draw a further tip clear at the head of the MoS Leaderboard, extending its lead now to three tips. Combo_7 remains in second, a tip clear of Bookie_3 and Combo_NN_1.
The average Margin Predictor recorded a Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE) of 34.7 points per game this week, which nudged the all-Predictor full season average MAPE marginally back over 30 points per game.
Best this week was Bookie_3 with a 30.6 points MAPE ahead of Bookie_LPSO (31.0) and Combo_7 (32.0). Bookie_LPSO's performance dragged it back into the top 3 Predictors after having dropped as low as fifth at the end of Round 19.
Combo_7 and Win_3 have been consistently strong Predictors all season and never out of the Top 3 since Round 10. They're now separated at the head of the MoS Leaderboard by just over 32 points.
Eleven of the Margin Predictors currently have Line betting records good enough for profitability in that market and seven of those same eleven also have profitable SuperMargin wagering performances when we take notice only if they select home team wins or draws.
ProPred_7 is the only Predictor with a profitable SuperMargin record but a loss-making Line betting record, while Combo_7, C_Marg and the two RSMP Predictors are the only ones with profitable Line betting records and loss-making SuperMargin records.
WinPred registered the round's best probability score amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors this week, though its score was practically identical to C_Prob's. That result for C_Prob shored up its second-placing on the MoS Leaderboard where it continues to trail Bookie-OE.
The Line Fund algorithm produced yet another negative probability score for the round, its fifth in a row and its sixth in seven rounds.
ChIPS registered a very small profit on its wagering for the week, its collects on Richmond, Geelong and West Coast narrowly more than offsetting its losses on the Lions and the Saints. It remains, however, down 21% on the season with an ROI of -17% and a Turn of 125%.
This week the Head-to-Head Fund has made a larger number of bets than it has in any single round all year, but the average size of those bets and the fact that the Line Fund has made just five wagers and the Margin Fund only six, has meant that less of the Recommended Portfolio is at risk this week than in any round since Round 11.
Read MoreIn a season such as this where Ratings towards the top of the table are quite compressed - at the end of last round, for example, six teams were separated by only a little more than 3.5 Rating Points - unexpectedly large or small wins or losses can lead to significant team reorderings. So it was then that 10 teams changed their ChiPS Ranking this week, three of them by more than a single place.
Read MoreOn Sunday the Pies and the Hawks recaptured a significant portion of what the teams before them had collectively surrendered earlier in the weekend, but their combined efforts could only mitigate and not extinguish the overall loss.
Read MoreThis week's activity takes us past the point where every dollar in the Recommended Portfolio has been wagered twice over.
Read MoreA round full of upsets brought about Ratings declines for six of the eight highest-Rated teams on ChiPS and saw 12 teams change places on the ChiPS Rating Ladder.
Read MoreThe Hawks' victory on Saturday night - which, by game time, even the bookmakers thought more likely than not - simultaneously snapped the Swans' 12-game winning streak and ended Investors' two-round losing streak.
Read MoreThe Line Fund has just four more games during which it can wantonly Level-stake at 5% of the Fund per wager.
Read MoreNot a full blog post this evening as there's still four-ninths of the round to complete, but a quick update nonetheless to let Investors know that we're up by 1.7c on the round.
Read MoreRound 18 is a split round with five games taking place this week and four games next week. Although TAB prices have been posted for the markets in which we're interested for all nine contests, I've only considered wagers in those games due to be played this weekend. Call me an optimist but I'm hoping for better prices next week on the four remaining games.
Read MoreCollingwood, on the backend of a 10-goal thumping by the Dons, were shuffled down to 8th on the competition ladder this weekend. ChiPS treated them similarly, promoting the Roos, Crows and Cats above them.
Read MoreAn Adelaide upset win was this week the key to a bountiful haul for Investors and, once that result went unachieved on Friday night, albeit only narrowly, taking over 6.5c of the Recommended Portfolio with it, the remainder of the round was then solely about sizing the eventual loss. At least, that's how I saw it.
Read MoreI can't remember a game in the history of MatterOfStats (or of MAFL, as MoS was formerly known) where the range of potential Recommended Portfolio outcomes from a single game spanned a 13.5c range, let alone one where Investors could swing from one end of that range to the other on the basis of just one opportune or inopportune goal.
Read MoreSix teams changed places on ChiPS' Rankings this week, though only Carlton (up 2) and West Coast (down 2) moved by more than a single place.
Read MoreIt's my - and, not entirely coincidentally, my wife's - 23rd Wedding Anniversary today, so this post is perhaps a little later than might otherwise be the norm. Not that I had any incentive to write it sooner.
Read MoreYou're a portfolio manager basking in the warmth of six consecutive periods of sweet profit that have served to lift your original investment by over 20%. What do you do?
Read MoreThere's not been a lot of movement on team Ratings and Rankings as a consequence of Round 15 results, so there'll be fairly minimal commentary this week.
Read MoreDespite the Margin Fund's best intentions, Investors enjoyed another week of profitability, extending the run of unbroken joy to six straight weeks. I'm now genuinely in fear of just how mean that mean regression is going to be.
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