2014 - Round 16 Results: The Loss We Had to Have

It's my - and, not entirely coincidentally, my wife's - 23rd Wedding Anniversary today, so this post is perhaps a little later than might otherwise be the norm. Not that I had any incentive to write it sooner.

The Head-to-Head Fund was the only Fund to return a profit this week, rising by 8.5c on the back of an upset win by the Suns, more than offsetting unsuccessful wagers by the Fund on the Dees and on the Eagles. The Line Fund, meantime, was unusually misperceptive, landing just 1 from 6 this week to drop by 20.5c, while the Margin Fund recorded its now usual zero correct predictions, this week recording 8 losses as it did so to fall by 8c.

All told, the Recommended Portfolio fell by a little over 9c to end the round still up by about 10c. Here's hoping that was the recession we had to have.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The average MatterOfStats' Head-to-Head Tipster chose the correct winner in about 6 of the week's 9 games, though the range of accuracy spanned a low of 3 (STM II and Shadow) to a high of 7 (the Win and ProPred families, plus EI I).

Bookie_9 still has a 2 tip lead over Combo_7, which continues to head Bookie_3 by a single tip.

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Win_3 now heads Win_7 atop the Leaderboard of Margin Predictors, though its 0.6 point lead is about as narrow as you could imagine. Bookie_3 recorded the round's best Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE) of 27.7 points per game, while C_Marg recorded the round's second-best MAPE though still remains anchored in last place almost 100 points adrift of second-last placed Combo_NN_2.

C_Marg now also has a profitable Line betting record, one of just nine Margin Predictors to share that distinction, and only one of two Predictors to enjoy that label amongst the six Predictors with the poorest MAPEs.

Win_3 bagged three correct SuperMargin predictions this week, while Win_7 bagged two, elevating both of them into profitability for the season taken as whole. The four H2H Predictors along with Combo_7, each landed one correct SuperMargin prediction too, and also find themselves in a position of profitability.

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Considering only those bucket selections this season where the relevant Predictor foresaw a home team win or draw, eight Predictors now have profitable records: both ProPreds, both WinPreds, and all four H2Hs.

Finally, turning to probability scoring, the Top 4 Head-to-Head Probability Predictors each recorded very similar, positive scores for the round, while the Line Fund algorithm recorded a decidedly negative score. At some point, clearly, you're going to poke yourself when your predictions are so sharp.