2014 - Round 8 Results : Made Money, Guessed Right
/We Investors already knew our financial fate last evening. All that was left this Monday night was to see how MatterOfStats' various Predictors and Tipsters finished the round.
Read More2014 - Round 8 Results (Wagering Update)
/Round 8, which still has one wager-free game to be played before it's done, has provided Investors with their best single round return for the season.
Read More2014 - Round 8 : Load-Bearing Power
/On a per game basis this week we're investing more than we have in any other single round this season despite wagering in only four of the six games available and despite having no disturbingly large single wager. That's not to say though, as my clients in the risk industry might phrase it, that our risk is "fully diversified". We do have a fairly significant dependence on the performance of a single team.
Read More2014 - Team Ratings After Round 7
/Within the ChiPS Rating System, winning teams more often fail to accumulate Ratings Points (RPs) than they do within the MARS System.
Read More2014 - Round 7 Results : Nope ... Just Nope
/Yet another frustrating week of wagering with only a single collect to show for it, a line wager on the Giants buried amongst two other unsuccessful line wagers, a forlorn head-to-head wager, and 10 whiffs in the SuperMargin markets
Read More2014 - Round 7 : A Small, Significant Giants Bet
/We've already collected this season, in Round 1, from a wager on GWS when they were priced in the "not this week" range, and this week the Head-to-Head Fund is hoping to reprise that symphony with a 2.1% wager on the Giants at $9.50 facing the horribly in-form Port Adelaide. Its bet is twice as large this week as it would have been were it made last week when the Fund's Kelly bet divisor was still at 20 and not 10. According to the Head-to-Head Fund, no other home team represents value in the head-to-head market this week - at least none of the three other home teams that it was entitled to consider for that privilege, they being the only ones priced at $1.50 or higher.
Read More2014 - Team Ratings After Round 6
/Port Adelaide are the competition's Most Improved Team so far this season, according both to the ChiPS and the MARS Rating Systems, Port having risen seven places in each System after accumulating about 20 Ratings Points on both.
Read More2014 - Round 6 Results : Better, But Still Not Good
/I sometimes feel that I'd benefit from putting a little more time between the end of the weekend's last game and composing the related Results blog - but then, who'd want to read about the Round on the following Tuesday or Wednesday?
Read More2014 - Round 6 : We Up the Stakes
/The Line Fund has wielded its new-found ability to inflict and suffer twice as much damage per game by constraining itself to only three wagers for Round 6, one on St Kilda giving the Lions 15.5 points start, another on the Dees basking in just over 7 goals start playing the Swans, and the third on Port Adelaide receiving 4.5 points start against the Cats.
Read More2014 - Team Ratings After Round 5
/This week I'm including the team rating opinions of the Colley, Massey and ODM Systems along with those of ChiPS and MARS.
Read More2014 - Round 5 Results: Regressing to the Wrong Mean
/For the second week in a row all three of the MatterOfStats Funds lost money, the Margin Fund most determinedly by shedding 5c, but the Head-to-Head and Line Funds with only slightly lesser and approximately equal alacrity, dropping 1.4c and 1.5c respectively. Combined the three Funds brought about a loss of just over 2c for the Recommended Portfolio, leaving it now down by a little less than 3c on the season.
Read More2014 - Round 5: A Strategic Retreat
/Next week the Line Fund doubles its bet size, and the week after that the Head-to-Head Fund does the same, so there's a sense of pausing in anticipation of bigger battles to come in this round's relatively subdued wagering.
Read More2014 - MARS and ChiPS Ratings After R4
/It's cheap and easy - though, don't get me wrong, disturbingly satisfying nonetheless - to be wise after the event, but one of the more pleasing aspects of the season so far has been the vindication of MARS' and ChiPS' 2013 insistence that the Roos' final ladder position was a poor reflection of their underlying abilities.
Read More2014 - Round 4 Results: Well That Won't Pay the Bills
/Save for a couple of very comfortable line betting wins on Port Adelaide and Geelong, Round 4 offered Investors absolutely nothing to cheer about.
Read More2014 - Round 4: Full Coverage
/For the first time this season the three MatterOfStats Funds have conspired to prevent Investors from enjoying any of the weekend's nine contests free from financial worry.
Read More2014 - MARS and ChiPS Ratings After R3
/It's rare for the ChiPS Rating System to add 6 Ratings Points to a team's Rating on the basis of a single result. It's rarer still for MARS to do the same thing.
Read More2014 - Round 3 Results: Giving a Little Back
/Not a great weekend for Investors, mostly because of eight unsuccessful SuperMargin wagers, though the story could have been a little different had the Giants kicked a behind rather than a goal in the dying stages of their clash with the Dees.
Read More2014 - Round 3: A Slight Ratcheting Up
/Based on the TAB Bookmaker's pre-game Round 3 prices, this week's results should be high in "information content". Or, put another way, they're likely to tell us more about the abilities of the 18 teams in the competition than we thought previous rounds would.
Read More2014 - MARS and ChiPS Ratings After R2
/Before performing the analysis tonight I thought that team ChiPS Ratings would have been much more affected by the results of Round 2 than team MARS Ratings but, as it turns out, Ratings were similarly affected for both Ratings systems.
For only four teams are ChiPS Rankings more than a single place different from MARS Rankings:
- Collingwood is ranked 6th by ChiPS and 8th by MARS
- Sydney is ranked 10th by ChiPS and 6th by MARS
- Port Adelaide is ranked 7th by ChiPS and 9th by MARS
- St Kilda is ranked 15th by ChiPS and 13th by MARS
Six more teams have ChiPS and MARS Rankings differing by a single spot - Richmond, the Kangaroos, Essendon, West Coast, the Brisbane Lions and the Gold Coast - while the remaining eight teams have identical ChiPS and MARS Rankings. Some of the gaps between teams are more or less assailable in a single round, but the rankings are remarkably consistent.
Lastly, the correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings increased a little this week, rising from +0.977 to +0.983. Team Rating Systems, it seems, have much in common.
2014 - Round 2 Results: Steady Progress
/This week only the Head-to-Head Fund took a backward step, unsuccessful in its lone wager and thereby surrendering just under 1c to the TAB bookmaker on a Dees outfit that scored 2 goals and 11 points fewer in the entire game than its opponents registered in the 1st quarter alone.
More than offsetting this loss from the Head-to-Head Fund was the Line Fund's two successful wagers from three, which added just under 1c to its value, and the Margin Fund's two additional successful wagers from eight, which added almost 9c to its value. Combined, these two Funds' results added almost 3c to the value of the Recommended Portfolio, leaving it up by 2c for the round and now 6.4c for the season.
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