2012 Round 23 - Wagers & Tips : It's All Happening at the MCG (and elsewhere)

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The AFL has scheduled this week's matches so that all six of the games with a direct bearing on the finals take place on Friday and Saturday, rendering Sunday's three matchups of limited interest to anyone but the supporters of the six teams involved - and to MAFL Investors; we'll have 15% of the Line Fund and 5% of the Margin Fund running around the various parks on Sunday being vigorously pursued by the TAB Bookmaker.
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2012 Round 21 - Wagers & Tips : Heliocentric Wagering

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This week apparently - and relatively speaking - the TAB Bookmaker has priced most of the markets correctly. At least that's the collective view of the Head-to-Head, Line and Margin Funds which, between them, have ventured just ten wagers, representing only about one-eighth of Investors' original funds, the smallest single-round outlay since Round 13 and only the third-largest this season since all three Funds have been active. Now really wasn't the time I was looking for introspection ...
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2012 AFL Futures Markets After Round 19

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I've just reviewed the current TAB AFL Futures markets in light of the recent simulations I performed of the remainder of the season, and the only value bets at the moment (assuming you agree with the MARS Ratings I've used in the simulations) are: 

  • Geelong to Make the Final 8 : offers an estimated 6% edge at $1.10
  • Geelong to Make the Top 4 : offers an estimated 14% edge at $8
  • St Kilda to Miss the Top 8 : offers an estimated 11% edge at $1.40
  • GWS to Win the Spoon : offers an estimated 4% edge at $1.40

 

2012 Round 19 - Wagers & Tips : There's Always Hope On A Sunday

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One Head-to-Head, four SuperMargin and five Line bets comprise this week's wagering activity, collectively representing for Investors a best-case upside of about 22c and a worst-case downside of about 15c. Almost certainly the eventual outcome will be somewhere within those bounds - lightning not striking twice in the same place and all that - but that's still quite a range ...
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2012 Round 18 - Wagers & Tips : No Line's Formed for the Giants v Pies Game

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GWS play host to the Pies this weekend at the most traditional of football grounds, the Sydney Showground, and this matchup has, predictably, caused the TAB Bookmaker to pause. I imagine he's deciding whether or not to post a line market with a high two-figure handicap or, instead, with a three-figure handicap for the first time in who knows how long.

Right now he's still pausing, so we're still waiting.

We've already locked in two head-to-head, six line and four SuperMargin wagers spanning all but the Port v Freo game, so we're guaranteed a busy weekend whatever he comes up with, but we'll have one more wager on GWS should the line market be posted with the 100-or-so points start I'm expecting.

Until tomorrow then ...