2025 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins have a few sizeable differences of opinions this week, with five games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts. Overall, the difference in their average Total is just a point. However, in contrast, their differences to the bookmakers range from 3 to 4 points.

Opinions are quite varied this week:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoS twins: Port Adelaide v Geelong

  • Bookmakers: Gold Coast v Hawthorn

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoS twins: Brisbane Lions v Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: Sydneyv Carlton

Highest Scoring Team

  • MoSSBODS and Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions

  • MoSHBODS: Western Bulldogs

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Melbourne

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found three wagers again this week, and again all unders, but spread across Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday.

The estimated overlays in the wagered-upon games range from about 8 to 17 points, and the wager sizes from 3.2% to 7% accordingly.

Altogether, the wagers represent just over 14% of the original Unders/Overs Fund.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw honours shared around for all forecasters, with MoSSBODS taking overall honours for Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS for Game Totals, Sportsbet for Game Margins, and the TAB and Sportsbet jointly for Home Team Scores.

Those results left all four season-long honours in exactly the same hands.

The leads are now as follows:

  • Game Margins: the TAB 3 points ahead of Sportsbet, 10 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 88 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: the TAB 7 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 12 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 45 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 14 points ahead of the TAB, 18 points ahead of MoSSBODS, and 20 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: the TAB 2 points ahead of Sportsbet, 33 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 46 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last week: one successful and one unsuccessful unders wager with Sportsbet, and one successful unders wager with the TAB. That left MoSSBODS with a 7 and 8 season-long performance against the TAB, and a 4 and 3 season-long perfomance against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet Totals 5 times in 9, and MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet Totals 6 times in 9.

That takes MoSSBODS to 38 from 80 (48%) against the TAB and 39 from 80 (49%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 45 from 80 (56%) against the TAB, and 43 from 80 (54%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.

From this we can see that MoSSBODS is 26 from 45 (58%) against Sportsbet and MoSHBODS is 25 from 45 (56%) against the TAB since and including Round 5.