An above-average six of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 23, and the best scores amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters was exactly that and recorded by all but the MoS trio.

They recorded only only 5 from 9, which saw MoSHPlay_Marg’s lead over RSMP_Simple at the top of the Leaderboard cut to two tips. RSMP_Weighted is one tip further back, in third.

The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 5.7 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 120.9 from 198 (61%).

Margin prediction was about as difficult this week as last, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from RSMP_Weighted’s 26.5 points per game to MoSHPlay_Marg’s 33.8 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 30.4 points per game, which is just 0.3 points per game higher than last week. The season-long all-predictor average is now 27.1 points per game per predictor.

(For anyone curious, RSMP_Simple’s forecasts are formed by a linear combination of 11 simple base learners, each of which has only one of the following inputs: Home Price, Away Price, MARS Rating Ratio (2 learners), MARS Difference, square root of MARS difference, the implicit home team probability using the RE methodology (2 learners), and the implicit home team probability using the OE methodology (3 learners).

The movements on the Leaderboard this week were RSMP_Simple’s climb from 5th to 1st (and the associated demotions), and RSMP_Weighted’s and Bookie_3s much smaller climbs.

The gap between 1st and 7th is now 80 points, but only 29 points separate 1st and 6th.

Log probability scores were all mildly positive this week, but generally better for the bookie-based forecasters, and worst for MoSHPlay_Prob. Best was Bookie_LPSO, which thereby retained first place, and Bookie_RE and Bookie_OE did enough to grab 2nd and 3rd spots ahead of MoSHPlay_Prob.

WAGERING

Another week, another loss for Investors, but this week only a small one, and mostly at the hands of the Overs/Unders Fund that dropped a startling 19.3c on an 0 from 4 performance.

Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by just under 1c, which leaves it down now by just under 32c on the season, that from a -10% ROT on a 3.2 turn.