2023 - Round 23 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins are once again forecasting generally lower scoring than are the bookmakers this week, by about as much as a goal a game in the case of MoSSBODS.

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Adelaide v Sydney

  • Bookmakers: Western Bulldogs v West Coast

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: St Kilda v Geelong

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Western Bulldogs

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have five wagers this week, all unders, and would also have had another overs bet but for the forecast in the Adelaide v Sydney game.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers are between about 7 and 16 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were all taken by MoSHBODS this week:

  • Game Margins: MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: MoSHBODS

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (6.5 incl 3 ties) / MoSSBODS (6) / MoSHBODS (5) / Sportsbet (4.5 incl 3 ties)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS (7) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (5) / TAB (4.5 incl 1 tie)

  • Away Team Scores: TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (4)

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS (7) / TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

Reviewing the data in the Errors section reveals that, across the season taken as a whole:

  • Home Teams have scored between about 1 and 2 points more per game than expected (depending on which forecaster youi use)

  • Away Teams have scored between about 1.5 and 2.5 points less per game than expected

  • Margins (from the Home Teams’ perspective) have been about 3 to 4 points higher than expected

  • Totals have been between 0 and 1 point lower than expected

The round results left all four titles in the same hands as last week. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 48 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 69 points ahead of Sportsbet

Home Team Scores: TAB 13 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 20 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 10 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 27 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 253 points ahead of the TAB and 36 points ahead of Sportsbet

MoSSBODS had three wagers last week, all unders and all collects, two against Sportsbet and one against the TAB.

It ended at 16 and 14 with the TAB, and at 20 and 11 with Sportsbet, for an overall 36 and 25 record, comprising a 54% win rate on overs and a 60% win rate on unders.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 6 from 9 against both bookmakers and MoSHBODS landed 7 from 9 against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 98 from 189 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 96 from 189 (51% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to a 99 from 189 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 98 from 189 (52%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.

It seems pretty clear now that large unders are the twins’ forte.