2023 - Round 22 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins are, yet again, forecasting generally lower scoring than are the bookmakers this week, but only by about half a goal a game.

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Port Adelaide v GWS

  • Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions v Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: West Coast v Fremantle

  • MoSHBODS: St Kilda v Richmond

  • Bookmakers: Colingwood v Geelong

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: Brisbane Lions

  • MoSHBODS and Sportsbet: Fremantle

  • TAB: Essendon, Brisbane Lions, and Fremantle

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have three wagers this week, all unders, and would also have had another overs bet but for the forecast in the Port Adelaide v GWS game.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers are between about 7 and 15 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared this week between the MoS twins:

  • Game Margins: MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (6.5 incl 3 ties) / MoSSBODS (6) / Sportsbet (4.5 incl 3 ties) / MoSHBODS (4)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (5) / TAB (4.5 incl 1 tie)

  • Away Team Scores: TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (5) / MoSSBODS (4)

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS (7) / TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (5) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

The round results left two of the four titles in the same hands as last week, and saw MoSSBODS snatch two titles away from the TAB. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 63 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 71 points ahead of Sportsbet

Home Team Scores: TAB 12 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 20 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 8 points ahead of the TAB and 11 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 13 points ahead of the TAB and 33 points ahead of Sportsbet

MoSSBODS had three wagers last week, all unders against Sportsbet, and landed 2 from 3..

It ended still at 15 and 14 with the TAB, and at 18 and 11 with Sportsbet, for an overall 33 and 25 record, comprising a 54% win rate on overs and a 58% win rate on unders.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 6 from 9 against both bookmakers and MoSHBODS landed 4 from 9 against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to an 92 from 180 (51%) record against the TAB, and an 90 from 180 (50% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to an 92 from 180 (51%) record against the TAB, and a 91 from 180 (51%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.