2023 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders

/

Across all nine games the MoS twins are forecasting a very similar average Total to the bookmakers this week, but there are some large differences for individual games.

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Adelaide v Port Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Hawthorn v St Kilda

  • Bookmakers: Western Bulldogs v GWS

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: Port Adelaide

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Geelong

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Fremantle

WAGERS

Investors have three wagers this week, two unders and an overs, and would also have had another overs bet but for the forecast in the Perth game.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers are between about 9 and 20 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours were shared for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week:

  • Game Margins: TAB and Sportsbet (tied)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: TAB

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (6.5 incl 3 ties) / MoSSBODS (5) / Sportsbet (4.5 incl 3 ties) / MoSHBODS (3)

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (5) / TAB (4.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (4)

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / TAB (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (5) / MoSSBODS (3)

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS (6) / TAB (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (5) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

The round results left three of the four titles in the same hands as last week, and saw the TAB narrowly take the lead from MoSHBODS on Away Team Scores. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 68 points ahead of Sportsbet and 77 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 14 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 36 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: TAB 0,5 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 8 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 7 points ahead of the TAB and 12 points ahead of Sportsbet

MoSSBODS had four wagers last week, all of them unders, and won three and lost one.

It ended still at 15 and 14 with the TAB, and at 14 and 9 with Sportsbet, for an overall 29 and 23 record, comprising a 50% win rate on overs and a 58% win rate on unders.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 5 from 9 against both bookmakers, while MoSHBODS landed 4 from 9 against both.

That moved MoSSBODS to an 83 from 162 (51%) record against the TAB, and an 81 from 162 (50% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to an 85 from 162 (53%) record against the TAB, and an 84 from 162 (52%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.