2024 - Round 18 : Then Again, We Might Not ...

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Two-thirds of the games in Round 18 are expected to be won by less than two-and-a-half goals this week, which include 4 games where the teams are separated by no more than 6 spots on the ladder. The remaining three games look less appetising and see 7th play 16th, 1st play 17th, and 8th play 18th.

The all-game average expected margin is 14.8 points per game, which is about 3 points per game lower than last week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home aside, contrarianism this week is confined to Consult The Ladder in two games, and the RSMP and MoS twins in the Melbourne v Essendon game where Essendon are the near smallest of favourites.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in only three games this week: Swans v Roos (24 points), Tigers v Giants (19 points), and Eagles v Lions (13 points).

MoSHBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and Bookie_3 and Bookie_9 in four games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point forecast range: Tigers v Giants (17% points).

The MoS twins have Extreme Predictor status in five games each this week, and Bookie_RE in four.

WAGERS

It’s a busier week for Investors and with that increased activity came some extended bookmaker dancing.

This week the dance was in relation to one head-to-head and four line bets:

  • We wanted 2.2% of the Head-to-Head Fund on Richmond at $4.10 but eventually had to settle for 2.1% at that price. The alternative price was $3.90, which offered no additional +EV.

  • We wanted 5.7% on Sydney -45.5 at $1.90, but ended up settling for 2% at that price and line, and then another 3.2% at the same price but a line of -46.5

  • We wanted 2.6% on Melbourne +2.5 at $1.90, but ended up settling for 2% at that price and line, and then another 0.3% at the same price but a line of +1.5

  • We wanted 2.1% on Port Adelaide +8.5 at $1.90, but ended up settling for 2% at that price and line. , The alternative line was +7.5, which offered no additional +EV.

  • We wanted 6.4% on Richmond +26.5 at $1.90, but ended up settling for 1.4% at that price and line, and then another 1.2% at the same price but a line of +25.5, and then another 3% at the same price but a line of +24.5

In total, Investors have just under 6% of the original Head-to-Head Fund on three teams, and just over 16% of the original Line Fund on five teams - the same three and two more.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner reveals that Richmond carry the most risk this week in the sense that the difference between a win and a 27-point loss represents 9.1% of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is borne by Sydney (6.4%), then Melbourne (3.3%), then Port Adelaide (2.5%), and then Western Bulldogs (2.2%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 12c, while a worst case set would snip about the same amount off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.