2023 - Round 17 : Overs/Unders

/

Overall, MoSSBODS is foreseeing a lower scoring round than the three other forecasters, except in a few likely-to-be-rain-affected contests..

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Brisbane Lions v West Coast

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: St Kilda v Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: Port Adelaide v Gold Coast

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Brisbane Lions

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have a season record-equalling five wagers this week, all unders, and would have had two more overs but for forecasts of rain in Melbourne and Adelaide..

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers are between about 7 and 18 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were all taken by one or other of the bookmakers:

  • Game Margins: TAB and Sportbet (tie)

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: TAB

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (5 incl 2 ties) / MoSSBODS (5) / Sportsbet (3 incl 2 ties) / MoSHBODS (3)

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (4) / TAB (3.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (3)

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet (4.5 incl 1 tie) / TAB (4.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (4) / MoSSBODS (3)

  • Game Totals: TAB (5) / MoSHBODS (5) / MoSSBODS (4) / Sportsbet (2)

That left three of the four titles in the same hands as last week, with TAB drawing aheadl of Sportsbet again for Game Totals, and taking the outright lead The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 34 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 68 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 13 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 67 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 3 points ahead of MoSSBODS, and 4 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: TAB 2 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 41 points ahead of MoSSBODS

MoSSBODS had fourwagers last week, a win and a loss on two unders wagers with the TAB, a win with an unders wager with Sportsbet, and a lose with an overs wager with Sportsbet.

That left it at 12 and 13 with the TAB, and 8 and 7 with Sportsbet, for an overall 20 and 20 record and a 50% win rate on both unders and overs wagers.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 3 from 9 against the TAB, and 4 from 9 against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS landed 4 from 9 against the TAB, and 5 from 9 against Sportsbet.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 67 from 135 (50%) record against the TAB, and a 65 from 135 (48% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to a 72 from 135 (53%) record against the TAB, and a 72 from 135 (53%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.