2023 - Round 13 : Overs/Unders
/Overall across this slightly less but still nonetheless truncated round, the MoS twins again have roughly the same expectations about likely average total scoring in the round but some variability of opinion about individual games.
As highests and lowests, we have:
HIGHEST SCORING GAME
MoS twins: North Melbourne v GWS
Bookmakers: Adelaide v West Coast
LOWEST SCORING GAME
All: Sydney v St Kilda
HIGHEST SCORING TEAM
All: Adelaide
LOWEST SCORING TEAM
MoS twins: St Kilda
Bookmakers: Hawthorn
WAGERS
Investors again have two wagers this week, one under and one over.
The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve a wager are about 8 and 12 points.
PREVIOUS RESULTS
Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were as follows:
Game Margins: TAB
Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS
Game Totals: MoSSBODS
That left all four titles in the same hands as last week, and the leads as follows:
Game Margins: TAB 15 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 47 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 9 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 67 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 16 points ahead of MoSSBODS, and 35 points ahead of the TAB
Game Totals: Sportsbet 2 points ahead of the TAB, and 24 points ahead of MoSHBODS
MoSSBODS had two wagers last week, an under with the TAB, which lost, and an over with Sportsbet, which won. That took MoSSBODS to 15 and 16 for the season.
Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 4 from 7 against both bookmakers, and MoSHBODS landed 5 from 7 against the TAB, and 4 from 7 against Sportsbet.
That moved MoSSBODS to a 53 from 106 (50%) record against the TAB, and a 51 from 106 (48% ) record against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS now has a 57 from 106 (54%) record against the TAB, and a 56 from 106 (53%) record against Sportsbet.
ACCURACY by estimated overlay
Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.
For background and information about how to read this chart, see last week’s blog.
