This week comprises:

• 3 games where the teams are separated by only 1 spot on the ladder

• 3 games where the gap is 2 spots

• 1 game where the gap is 3 spots, and

• 2 games where the gap is 4 spots

That’s made for generally small TAB Bookmaker expected margins, including 3 of under a goal, and five more under three goals. The odd one out is the 25.5 handicap for North Melbourne playing Adelaide.

The overall average expected margin is just 12,7 points per game, which is low by general Round 15 standards, but curiously higher that the matching figure for the same round last season. It drops the all-season average expected margin to 18 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There is contrarianism amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters in six of the nine contests this week, especially in the Geelong v Richmond game where six of the seven possible candidates have accepted the role.

Outside that game we have Consult The Ladder contrarian in two more, Home Sweet Home in three, ENS_Linear in one, MoSHBODS_Marg in two, and MoSSBODS_Marg in one. That should make for some movement on the Leaderboard come the end of the round.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we have six games registering double-digit forecast ranges, but all of them in the 11- to 15-point range, with the largest in the North Melbourne v Adelaide game.

Altogether, Bookie_3 and MoSHBODS_Marg have the most extreme margin forecasts in five games, and ENS_Linear in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is 12% points for both the Melbourne v Brisbane Lions, and Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn games.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in six games, Bookie_OE in four games, and Bookie_RE in three games.

WAGERS

The MoS models have responded to the 50% increase in available markets this week like a puppy at a liverwurst expo, finding value in almost everything in sight. (Yeah, that only kinda works as a simile.)

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

In total, Investors have five head-to-head wagers, ranging in size from 0.6% to 4.4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling almost 12% of that Fund, as well as four line wagers, ranging in size from 0.1% to 1.8% of the original Line Fund and totalling 3% of that Fund.

The Ready Reckoner for all this activity is shown below.

Most risk (as measured by the difference between the best- and worst-case outcomes) is carried by the Dogs where the potential swing is just over 4c. Next is Melbourne with 2.6c, Geelong 1.2c, Carlton 1.1c, North Melbourne 0.8c, Collingwood 0.4c, and Gold Coast 0.2c.

Altogether a best set of results would increase the value of the Combined Portfolio by just under 5c, and a worst set would decrease it by 5.5c .

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.