2021 - Round 27 Results - Second-Quarter Scare
/All the Head-to-Head Tipsters were on the Dees in the Grand Final, which means that MoSSBODS_Marg has finished top on 138.5 from 206 (67%), three tips ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 135.5 (66%), and five tips ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg on 133.5 (65%).
Amongst the Margin Predictors, Bookie_9’s Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 65 points was good enough to see them overhaul RSMP_Weighted and finish in the top spot.
There were no other changes on the Leaderboard, but less than 0.3 points per game separated 1st from 9th.
The all-Predictor MAE was 66.3 points per game, which made the season-long all-Predictor average finished at 27.2 points per game.
Log probability scores were positive for all the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors this week and highest for MoSHPlay_Prob, but insufficiently high to alter the final ordering, which saw MoSHBODS_Prob in 1st, MoSHPlay_Prob in 2nd, and MoSSBODS_Prob in 3rd.
Back in 2016, I created a Grand Final typology for the Guardian that classified all Grand Finals into one of six types based on the scores at each of the breaks. The 2021 Grand Final was an archetypical “Second Quarter Scare”
That Dees’ win and Dogs’ loss left the Finals performance by ladder position tables looking as follows.
So, over the past 22 seasons, there have now been 7 wins each for teams finishing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd on the home-and-away ladder.
In fact, looking across all weeks of the Finals, the only ladder positions with better than 50% records are 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.
WAGERS
Just the one, unsuccessful unders wager this week.
The loss was only 0.2c, which left the Combined Portfolio finishing the season with a profit of 11.1c, that coming from a +8.6% ROT on a 1.28 turn.
