2021 - Round 27 : Overs/Unders
/This week the MoS forecasters again have lower expectations for scoring than the bookmakers - by about two goals in MoSSBODS’ case.
WAGERS
Investors have an unders wager this week. Consider it the Overs/Unders Fund’s swansong.
The estimated overlay for the wager is just over 11 points.
PREVIOUS RESULTS
Round 26 had Sportsbet recording the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins and Away Team Scores, the TAB recording the lowest MAE for Game Totals, and Sportsbet and the TAB jointly recording the lowest MAE for Home Team Scores.
That left MoSSBODS still with the best season-long performance on Away Team Scores (leading MoSHBODS by about 16 points), Sportsbet with the best season-long performances on Game Margins (leading the TAB by 7 points) and Game Totals (leading the TAB by 1 points), and the TAB with the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores (leading Sportsbet by 9.5 points).
MoSSBODS lost its only unders wager last week, which was with the TAB. That left it with a 31 and 38 record with the TAB, and a 7 and 8 record with Sportsbet.
Overall, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both finished on the wrong side of both Totals against Sportsbet and the TAB.
That left MoSSBODS at 104 from 206 (51%) against the TAB, and 102 from 206 (50%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS at 102 from 206 (50%) against the TAB, and 103 from 206 (50%) against Sportsbet.
