2021 - Round 25 (Week 2 of the Finals) : Home But Away

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Both home teams are again favourites this week (despite the fact that one of them is playing its home game in a different State), a circumstance that is once more supported by recent history, which reveals that double-chance teams are 34 and 8 in Semi-Finals since 2000.

In the 3rd v 7th clash, the home team is about a two-and-a-half-goal favourite, and in the 4th v 5th clash, about a one-goal favourite.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Again, there are no contrarian tips amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, so there’ll be no movement on the Leaderboard unless MoSHPlay startles us on Thursday or Friday night.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, the forecast ranges are relatively subdued 8 and 15 points, with RSMP_Weighted, ENS_Linear, MoSHBODS_Marg, and MoSSBODS_Marg combining to define the ends of them.

MoSHBODS_Marg currently trails Bookie_9 on the Leaderboard by just under 19 points. It could cut that gap to about 1 point this week should the Cats win by 11 points or less, and the Lions win by 21 points or more.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the probability estimate ranges are 6% points and 16% points, with MoSHBODS_Marg anchoring one end of both ranges, assisted by Bookie_LPSO in the Cats game, and by Bookie_OE in the Lions game.

The probability estimates of the MoS twins aren’t large enough to put at risk their lofty positions on the Leaderboard, though they would allow the bookmaker-based forecasters to significantly close the gap should both underdogs win.

WAGERS

This week, a pair of wagers on the Lions, head-to-head at $1.70, and on the line market at -5.5.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Possible results are:

  • Lions win by 6 points or more: 30% x 2.9% x 0.70 + 60% x 2.4% x 0.9 = +1.9c

  • Lions win by 1 to 5 points: 30% x 2.9% x 0.70 - 60% x 2.4% = -0.8c

  • Draw: 30% x 2.9% x (1.70/2-1) - 60% x 2.4% = -1.6c

  • Lions lose: -30% x 2.9% - 60% x 2.4% = -2.3c

So, in total, a swing of over 4c is possible based on the outcome of two kicks.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.