2020 - Round 21 : Overs/Unders

The MoS twins are slightly more optimistic about the likely scoring in the upcoming Preliminary Finals, but only by about a goal.

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All four forecasters have Richmond as the round’s lowest-scoring team (though EasyBet adds Port Adelaide). MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers have the Lions as the round’s highest-scoring team, while MoSHBODS has it as their opponents, the Cats.

All four also have the Power v Tigers game as the lower-scoring of the Semi Finals.

WAGERS

So similar are MoSSBODS’ Totals forecasts again this week that Investors have no wagers in either game.

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The estimated overlays in both games against both bookmakers are under 6 points, which is why there’s no consideration of a wager.

In Round 20, MoSSBODS had a relatively poor round, as both of the bookmakers, with identical forecasts, took Mean Absolute Error (MAE) honours for all four metrics.

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So poor was MoSSBODS performance, in fact, that it surrendered the season-long MAE leads for Game Margins and Away Team Scores to the TAB. MoSHBODS still leads for Home Team Scores, and the TAB bookmaker also for Game Totals.

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MoSSBODS had no wagers last weekend, leaving it with a season-long 70% record against the TAB, and a 57% record against Easybet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 88 from 159 (55%) against the TAB, and 89 from 159 (56%) against Easybet, while MoSHBODS is 92 from 159 (58%) against the TAB, and 93 from 159 (59%) against Easybet.