2020 - Round 16 : Saturday Morning's All Right for Scoring
/We have eight games in the upcoming round, for seven of which the bookmakers have already framed markets.
Let’s see what the MoS models make of those seven.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
It’s just the MoS twins in the Dogs v Eagles game, and Home Sweet Home in that same game and in two others, who are offering any contrarian tips so far this week.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, only that Dogs v Eagles game sees forecasts on either side of zero. Three games have forecast margins that span less than 2 goals, and none span more than 3 goals.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the smallest range of probability estimates comes in the Roos v Power game where it’s just 6% points, and the largest range comes in the Dees v Dockers game where it’s 23% points.
WAGERS
So different are the MoS twins opinions this week from those of the bookmakers, Investors find themselves with six head-to-head bets, ranging in size from 0.3% to 6.3% of that Fund, and four line bets, ranging in size from 0.4% to 2.1% of that Fund.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne each carry about the same risk (as measured by the difference in returns from the best versus the worst outcomes) as shown in the Ready Reckoner below.
They carry between 3.4% and 3.7% risk. Carlton carries 1.7%, Adelaide 0.8%, North Melbourne 0.7%, and Hawthorn 0.4%.
Altogether, almost 8.0% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk and the maximum upside is about 6.5%.
To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
