2020 - Round 10 : Surely I'm Getting Paid For This ...

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Yes, it’s me, back again. I didn’t create this fixturing …

In this round’s business-days only fare, which ends on Friday, the bookmakers have six of the seven games finishing with a double-digit margin and only the Tigers v Lions game expected to be closer than that.

Let’s see what the MoS models make of it.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarian tips are extremely thin on the ground (which is where, I’d imagine, you’d find them) this week, with Home Sweet Home offering four, and Consult The Ladder and RSMP_Simple only one each.

So, not much movement at the top of the Leaderboard then.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are forecasts on either side of zero only in the Tigers v Lions game, and ranges of 12 points or less in six of the seven games. The largest range is for that Pies v Swans game, where the MoS twins’ confidence in Collingwood has stretched it to 17 points.

MoSSBODS_Marg, with four, has more of the week’s most extreme forecasts than any other Predictor. Bookie_9 is next, with three.

Lastly, turning to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range of probability estimates in percentage point terms in that Pies v Swans game where it’s 20% points, followed by the Power v Eagles game where it’s 18% points, and the Dons v Giants game where it’s 15% points. No other game has a range greater than 9% points.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in all seven contests, Bookie_RE and Bookie_OE in three each.

WAGERS

This week’s wagering comprises bets made on Sunday night at around 10:30pm, at which point head-to-head and line markets were available on our two bookmakers of choice for only the first four games, and bets made around 12 hours later on Monday morning, by which point markets for the three remaining games were available.

Investors have finished with four head-to-head and four line wagers spanning just five teams.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Collingwood are carrying the round’s greatest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes), with the difference between successful and unsuccessful wagers on them representing 4.3% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Port Adelaide carrying a 3.4% swing, Essendon a 1.5% swing, and Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast carrying 1% each.

(In hindsight I probably should have taken the $2 on offer for Essendon +11.5 rather than the $1.91 I took for +12.5, although the difference in the expected value depends on the standard deviation you want to assume for game margins in this new 16-minute quarter era. If MoSSBODS is right, and the Dons’ true handicap should be +3, and if we assume a standard deviation of 28 points, we have (approximately, assuming game margins are Normally distributed):

P(Margin of Loss < 11.5) = 61.9%, which gives an expected return per $ wagered at a $2 price of +24c

P(Margin of Loss < 12.5) = 63.3%, which gives an expected return per $ wagered at a $1.91 price of +21c

That’s about 12% less for the price I took.)

Anyway, in total, 6.2% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is 5%.

To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.