2019 - Team Ratings After Round 20
/Richmond took 1st place on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, relegating the Lions into 2nd on MoSSBODS, and the Giants into 2nd on MoSHBODS.
That left the two Systems with the same Top 3, but with 2nd and 3rd reversed.
The big movers on MoSSBODS were North Melbourne (up 3 spots into 7th), and Hawthorn (down 3 spots into 8th), while those on MoSHBODS were Essendon (down 5 spots into 12th), Geelong (down 3 spots into 6th), Melbourne (down 3 spots into 16th), Western Bulldogs (up 3 spots into 9th), and Fremantle (up 3 spots into 13th). No other team moved by more than 2 spots on either System.
In total, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 13 teams this week - a reflection of just how evenly-matched so many of them are - which left the Systems now differing in their rankings of only one team by more than three spots: West Coast, ranked 10th on MoSSBODS and 4th on MoSHBODS, the difference in large part due to the Eagles’ exceptionally high conversion rate this year (58%) and the exceptionally low conversion rate they’ve allowed their opponents (46%). They’re 1st on both of those metrics, and this has allowed them to rack up larger margins than their scoring shot differentials might have otherwise suggested.
Ratings remain, as they have been for much of the season, compressed on both Systems. On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 12th are now separated by only 4.1 Scoring Shots, and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 12th are separated by only 9.5 points.
The underlying Combined MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Team Ratings remain highly correlated.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now rate the same 10 teams as being above-average (those in the upper-right quadrant of the chart above).
On the Component Ratings, on offence we see Brisbane Lions still in top spot on both Systems and ahead of Richmond on both, while on defence, Richmond is now 1st on MoSSBODS, and GWS has retained top spot on MoSHBODS.
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (down 1), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1).
Only five teams are in different quadrants under the two Systems:
Port Adelaide (positive offence and defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSHBODS)
Collingwood and Geelong (negative offence and positive defence on MoSSBODS, positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS)
St Kilda (negative offence and positive defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and defence on MoSHBODS)
Sydney (negative offence and defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSHBODS)
Looking across all 18 teams we find that:
on offence, only Port Adelaide and Essendon are ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems
on defence, only West Coast, St Kilda, and Essendon are ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems
Next, let’s compare each team’s current ratings with those of teams from the past at the same point in their respective seasons (ie after 20 rounds of the home-and-away season). Note that we lose any team from a season with a home-and-away portion that didn’t span at least 20 rounds.
Teams shown as red points are teams that eventually finished premiers, and those shown in orange finished as runners up.
It remains the case that no team has a Combined Rating above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season, and only Richmond, Brisbane Lions, GWS, and now Port Adelaide are above the lowest decile. At the other end, Carlton, Sydney, Fremantle, St Kilda, Essendon, and Gold Coast all have Combined Ratings lower than that of any previous Grand Finalist at this point in the season.
If we focus purely on the seasons from 2000 onwards, we find only Richmond and Brisbane Lions above the lowest decile.
The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current rating, and shows Richmond regaining the lead after the latest round.
ChiPS left Richmond in top spot this week, but elevated West Coast into 2nd, relegating Geelong into 3rd, and GWS into 4th.
MARS left Geelong in 1st and West Coast in 2nd, but switched Richmond into 3rd at the expense of GWS.
Richmond’s rating lead over West Coast on ChiPS is 7.6 Rating Points, while Geelong’s lead over West Coast shrank to just 3.0 Rating Points.
ChiPS re-ranked 10 teams this week, and MARS just eight, with only Port Adelaide (up 3 on both) and Essendon (down 3 on both) moving by more than two spots on either System.
That’s left the two of them disagreeing about the ranking of only Sydney and Adelaide by more than two places.
We can see the continuing high level of correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings by charting them.
Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:
Sydney has the widest range of rankings (from 7th on ChiPS to 16th on MoSSBODS)
West Coast have the next-widest range of rankings (from 2nd on ChiPS and MARS to 10th on MoSSBODS)
Geelong, North Melbourne, and St Kilda are next (Geelong 1st on MARS, and 6th on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS; North Melbourne 7th on MoSSBODS, and 12th on ChiPS; St Kilda 12th on MoSSBODS, and 17th on MARS)
No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems.
Gold Coast and Collingwood are the only team ranked identically by all four Systems, but five other teams’ rankings cover only two or three values.
