2019 - Round 25 (Week 2 of the Finals) - Small Margins

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We have in prospect two Semi-Finals expected to produce victory margins of less than a goal and in which both underdogs are estimated as having 40 to 45% chances of progressing to a Preliminary Final.

That compares with the expectations in 2018 where the bookmakers had Richmond as 15.5 points favourites over Collingwood, and West Coast as 2.5 point favourites over Melbourne.

To the MoS forecasters then.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

West Coast’s favouritism has startled all of the Head-to-Head Tipsters - except, of course, Bookie Knows Best - with the result that there is almost unanimous support for the home-away-from- home team Cats.

In the other game, there’s unanimous support for the home-at-home team favourites in the shape of the Lions.

So, with BKB standing alone in the Friday game, the gap between it and both ENS_Linear and RSMP_Simple at the top of the Leaderboard will be either 1 or 3 tips after this week.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, it’s only the bookmaker-based Predictors who’ve come up with West Coast wins, the remainder seeing the Cats getting home by between about 1 and 17 points. The extremes are Bookie_3’s 5-point Eagles win, and MoSSBODS_Marg’s 17-point Cats win.

In the other game, forecast victory margins for the Lions range from a low of 4 points (the RSMP twins) to a high of 15 points MoSSBODS_Marg.

With the similarity between the RSMP twins’ forecasts, RSMP_Weighted is guaranteed of remaining atop the Leaderboard by at least about 4.5 points come the end of the round. Bookie_LPSO could narrow the gap to RSMP_Simple by as much as 10 points, however, leaving it only about 20 points behind in 3rd with three games to be played.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find probability estimates spanning a range of 25% points from 45% (Bookie_OE and Bookie_RE) to 70% (MoSSBODS_Prob) in the Cats v Eagles game, but spanning only 8% from 59% (Bookie_OE and Bookie_RE) to 67% (MoSSBODS_Prob) in the Lions v Giants game.

There’s a possibility, therefore, of some movement on the Leaderboard, but only based on the Cats v Eagles result.

WAGERS

Investors again have only two wagers, this week both on the Cats.

(Please click on the image to access a larger version.)

The Line Bets are a little odd because Easybet would take only about three-quarters of the amount I wanted to wager, with the result that Investors have 3.3% of the original Line Fund on the Cats +4.5 @ $1.91, and 1.3% of the original Line Fund on the Cats +3.5 @ $1.90.

That still makes the calculations for the Combined Portfolio fairly straightforward:

  • Cats win: 25% x 1.1 x 1.8% + 50% x (0.91 x 3.3% + 0.9 x 1.3%) = 2.6c gain

  • Cats draw: 25% x (2.1/2-1) x 1.8% + 50% x (0.91 x 3.3% + 0.9 x 1.3%) = 2.1c gain

  • Cats lose by 1 to 3 points: -25% x 1.8% + 50% x (0.91 x 3.3% + 0.9 x 1.3%) = 1.6c gain

  • Cats lose by 4 points: -25% x 1.8% + 50% x (0.91 x 3.3%) - 50% x 1.3% = 0.4c gain

  • Cats lose by 5 points or more: -25% x 1.8% - 50% x (3.3% + 1.3%) = 2.8c loss

The total at risk is 25% x 1.8% + 50% x 4.6%, which is 2.8% of the original Combined Portfolio funds, and the swing from best to worst outcome is 5.4c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.