2019 - Round 24 (Week 1 of the Finals) - Three Coin Tosses

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The expected margins in three of the four weekend Finals are under 7 points, leaving Thursday’s Eagles v Dons game as the only one threatening to be uncompetitive. Even in that game, however, the Dons are still assessed as about 1 in 4 chances of progressing.

Those expectations are quite similar to what we saw in 2018, where we also had expected margin of under 7 points in the three Friday and Saturday games. For the Thursday, Tigers v Hawks game in 2018, however, the expected margin was 15.5 points and not, as this year, 28.5 points.

To the MoS forecasters then.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

We see quite a few underdog picks by the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, but all of them concentrated in the Giants v Dogs, and Lions v Tigers games. As a result of one underdog tip each, both RSMP_Simple and MoSSBODS_Marg are capable of narrowing the gap to BKB by one tip this week.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, both the Giants v Dogs, and the Lions v Tigers games have produced forecasts on either side of zero, and there are also single-digit margin predictions in the Cats v Pies game. C_Marg is the most optimistic about a close contest in the Eagles v Dons game. Its margin prediction for that game is Eagles by 19.

Forecast ranges are quite narrow this week, the largest of them in the Eagles v Dons, and Lions v Tigers games where they are 16 points. In the two other games the ranges are just 7 and 14 points.

C_Marg is the most extreme forecaster in three games this week, and Bookie_3 in two.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find probability estimates spanning a range of 18% points in the Lions v Tigers game, and from 6 to 15% points in the other three contests.

C_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in three games, and Bookie_LPSO in two.

WAGERS

Investors have only two wagers this week, both of them on the Lions.

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That makes the calculations for the Combined Portfolio fairly straightforward:

  • Brisbane Lions win: 25% x 1.25 x 1.6% + 50% x 0.9 x 2.1% = 1.4c gain

  • Brisbane Lions draw: 25% x (2.25/2-1) x 1.6% + 50% x 0.9 x 2.1% = 1.0c gain

  • Brisbane Lions lose by 1 to 6 points: -25% x 1.6% + 50% x 0.9 x 2.1% = 0.5c gain

  • Brisbane Lions lose by 7 points or more: -25% x 1.6% - 50% x 2.1% = 1.5c loss

The total at risk is 25% x 1.6% + 50% x 2.1%, which is 1.5% of the original Combined Portfolio funds, and the swing from best to worst outcome is 2.9c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.