2019 - Round 21 : Overs/Unders

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This week, the MoS twins are forecasting, on average, higher total scores than the bookmakers - a fact that can be partly explained by the relevant weather forecasts, which currently call for rain to affect the majority of contests, and about which the twins are entirely oblivious.

That differential knowledge about the likelihood of rainfall has had some influence on the forecasters ordering of the games in terms of likely total scores.

For most-likely low-scoring game we have the MoS twins both opting for Port v Swans, but the bookmakers going with Giants v Hawks, while for most-likely high-scoring game we have the twins selecting Dons v Dogs, and the bookmakers Lions v Suns.

As low-scoring team we have the MoS duo tipping the Suns, and the bookmakers the Blues, and for high-scoring it’s a unanimous vote for the Lions, who are also the only team tipped to rack up a three-figure score.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week were again shared between MoSSBODS (lowest for Home Team Scores) and Easybet (lowest for Game Margins, Away Team Scores and Total Scores).

That left MoSHBODS still 1st overall for the season on Total Score MAE, the TAB still 1st on Home Team Score and Game Margin MAE, and Easybet still 1st on Away Team Score MAE. It’ll be remarkable if MoSHBODS can hang on and record the lowest MAE for Total Scores across the whole season. Its current lead is roughly 30 points.

WAGERS

This week MoSSBODS has identified eight possible wagers, five of which are overs bets ruled out by the weather forecasts.

We’re left then with three bets, two unders and one over, the overlays for two of which only just meet the 6-point minimum. Given that fact and the recent form of MoSSBODS in the unders/overs market, Investors have no reason to feel at all comfortable.

Last week there three unsuccessful wagers from four, with only one of three bets successful against the TAB, and the lone bet unsuccessful against Easybet. That moved MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB to 14 and 13, and that against Easybet to 21 and 19, droppng the overall win rate to 52% for the season.

Across the entirety of the round, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS landed on the right side of the TAB and of Easybet in only 4 of the 9 games. That took MoSSBODS to a 54% record for the season against the TAB and Easybet, and took MoSHBODS to a 53% record for the season against the TAB, and a 54% record against Easybet.