2018 - Team Ratings After Round 13

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Richmond didn't do quite enough this week to impress either of the MoS twins and so saw its rating lead over Collingwood cut on both Systems, albeit by only small amounts. Richmond is now about a 2.7 Scoring Shot or 10 point better side that Collingwood, according to the Systems' ratings.

On MoSSBODS, only eight teams changed places, and only Fremantle (up 3), Port Adelaide (up 2), and St Kilda (down 2) by more than a single spot. On MoSHBODS, there were fewer changes still, with just five teams moving and only Fremantle (up 2) by more than a single spot.

That left the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of 12 teams, and differing in the ranking of the others by no more than a single place except for:

  • Port Adelaide, ranked 5th on MoSSBODS and 8th on MoSHBODS
  • Sydney, ranked 7th on MoSSBODS and 5th on MoSHBODS

Note that this week I've added a pair of columns for each System to record the change in each team's rating and ranking since the start of the season under that System. Collingwood, West Coast, Melbourne and North Melbourne are the big climbers on both Systems, while Sydney, Essendon, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and St Kilda are the teams that have fallen furthest.

Looking next at the component ratings, we see that:

  • the MoS twins still have the same Top 3 on offence of Richmond, Melbourne and then Collingwood
  • MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Port Adelaide and then Collingwood, while MoSHBODS has it as Richmond, Sydney, and then Port Adelaide, the latter two teams swapping places on this System this week.

Across all 18 teams we find that: 

  • Brisbane Lions is ranked 11th by MoSSBODS and 14th by MoSHBODS on Offence
  • Collingwood is ranked 3rd by MoSSBODS and 8th by MoSHBODS on Defence
  • Sydney is ranked 6th by MoSSBODS and 2nd by MoSHBODS on Defence
  • Geelong is ranked 8th by MoSSBODS and 4th by MoSHBODS on Defence
  • Hawthorn is ranked 5th by MoSSBODS and 7th by MoSHBODS on Defence

No other team is ranked more than a single place differently by the two Systems.

In the latest version of the animated GIF, which appears below, we see only slight movement at the north-eastern or business end of the dance floor.

MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 13 - Smooth.gif

Viewed in the context of history, Richmond still find themselves rated amongst the best, though they slipped back a little this week in relation to the distribution of ratings held by previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season. They now only just sit in the top decile of these teams. Collingwood remain the only other team sitting above the median rating of previous Grand Finalists.

As things stand now:

  • six teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating (down one from last week)
  • none has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating (unchanged)
  • five have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating (up two from last week)
  • seven have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating (down one from last week)

In total, 12 teams now have a negative offensive rating and seven have a negative defensive rating.

On ChiPS this week, only four teams moved places, Hawthorn and North Melbourne trading 9th and 10th, and Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs trading 15th and 16th. 

MARS moved eight teams, but only Port Adelaide (up 2) and Adelaide (down 2) by more than a single spot.

The two Systems differ by more than two places in their rankings only of:

  • Collingwood, ranked 3rd on ChiPS and 7th on MARS
  • GWS, ranked 6th on ChiPS and 9th on MARS
  • Adelaide, ranked 11th on ChiPS and 8th on MARS

Things seem to be settling down now across all the Rating Systems, as something of a natural team ordering emerges for about the top one-third and bottom few places.

Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • Still, GWS's and Gold Coast's ladder positions are most different from their average Rating System ranking. GWS are generally ranked higher by the Rating Systems than their ladder position, while Gold Coast is uniformly ranked lower than its ladder position.
  • Sydney (2nd to 7th) is ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Collingwood (2nd to 7th) is also ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Adelaide (8th to 12th) is ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Geelong (4th to 8th) is also ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.