2018 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders Update

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For the third week in a row, both bookmakers are forecasting an average game total of below 170 points per game, so don't expect the lamentation of low-scoring games in the media to stop any time soon. What's more, six games are expected to finish with a total below that average, with the Sydney v Fremantle game expected to produce the lowest total of all at around 160 points, which equates to about 23 goals between the two teams across the four quarters assuming a 53% scoring shot conversion rate.

That's about one goal every five minutes of elapsed time ...

The MoS twins largely agree with the bookmakers, and also have all-game averages just under the 170 mark - much the same as they did for Round 8.

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS, MoSHBODS : Adelaide v Western Bulldogs (180 to 182)
  • TAB & Centrebet : Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn (180.5)

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS : Sydney v Fremantle (157)
  • MoSHBODS : Kangaroos v GWS (157) 
  • TAB & Centrebet : Gold Coast v Port Adelaide (156.5 to 157.5)

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING TEAM

  • All : Adelaide (104 to 107)

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING TEAM

  • All : Gold Coast (58.5 to 65)
     

MoSHBODS' probability estimates estimates this week have Adelaide, Melbourne, Geelong, and Port Adelaide as the only teams assessed as having a better than 10% chance of being the round's high-scoring team, and Gold Coast and Fremantle as the only teams assessed as having a better than 10% chance of being the round's low-scoring team.

The Crows v Dogs, and Dons v Cats games are estimated as the ones most likely to be the round's high-scoring game, while the Roos v Giants, and Swans v Dockers games are estimated as being those most likely to finish as the round's low-scoring game.

WAGERS

After last week's fears of overs-inhibiting rainfall failed to materialise, Investors have two more overs wagers this week, one on the game in Jiangwan China on Saturday where the forecast is "partly cloudy", and the other in the game at the MCG, also on Saturday, where the forecast is ... for a shower or two.

(By the way, how challenging a task must it be confidently framing a totals market for a game to be played in another country.)

Those two overs wagers are book-ended by two unders wagers, one on Saturday at Bellerive ("partly cloudy") and one on Sunday at the Gabba ("mostly sunny") where the estimated overlay is just over two goals.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

Last week, MoSSBODS was on the correct side of the TAB's and Centrebet's totals in five of the nine games, while MoSHBODS registered five against the TAB and six against Centrebet,

That gives MoSSBODS a season-long 56% record against the TAB and Centrebet, and gives MoSHBODS also a 56% record against the TAB and a 58% record against Centrebet. 

In games on which it has wagered, MoSSBODS is 12 from 20 (60%) against the TAB, and 10 from 18 (56%) against Centrebet.

This performance table shows that, so far this season, totals have been about 9 or 10 points a game lower than the bookmakers have expected, with home teams scoring about 2 or 3 points a game less, and away teams about 6 or 7 points less than they've expected.

For the MoS twins, who've generally forecast lower aggregates, totals have been only about 6 points less than they've expected, with the home teams responsible for 1 or 2 points worth of that deficit, and away teams the remaining 3 or 4 points.

The table also shows that MoSHBODS was clearly the standout forecaster last week, registering the lowest mean absolute errors (MAEs) for game margins, away team scores, and totals. MoSSBODS - completing the MoS twins' rout of the bookmakers - recorded the lowest MAE for home team scores.

Centrebet's still leads, however, on the season-long view for home team scores, while MoSHBODS retains top spot on Totals but now also has top spot on away team scores, a position previously held by Centrebet. The TAB still has low MAE for game margin forecasts.