2018 - Round 1 : Overs/Unders Update

Some now-familiar early-season coyness by the bookmakers in posting totals markets meant that this post had to be delayed until today (Wednesday). Those markets only popped up onto the websites sometime early this afternoon - while I was on a client site as fate would have it, though I doubt they moved much if at all before I captured them.

Here's how they look and compare to MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS:

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Whilst there are some sizeable differences of opinion, everyone has St Kilda as the round's high-scoring team with forecasts ranging from 110.5 to 117 for their final tally against the Lions. As low-scorers, MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS have Fremantle, while the TAB and Centrebet bookmakers have Carlton (but note that MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS have Carlton as their second lowest-scoring team).

That St Kilda v Brisbane game is also expected to produce the highest total according to MoSHBODS, MoSSBODS and Centrebet, though Centrebet expects the Essendon v Adelaide game to produce the same total (195.5 points). The TAB has the Essendon v Adelaide game as its high-scoring game and expects to see about 202 points in it, which is a goal more than Centrebet expects and two goals more than MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS expect.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the home teams, on average, scoring about 2 to 5 points fewer than the bookmakers have them scoring, and have the away teams scoring 1 to 3 points fewer. As such, the MoS twins' average totals are about 3 to 6 points smaller, on average, than the bookmakers'.

WAGERS

With these generally lower forecast totals by MoSSBODS (and MoSHBODS), it's unsurprising that Investors have five unders wagers across the nine games this week. The estimated overlays in those contests range from 10 to 21 points, which reflects the highly variable and speculative nature of opinions this early in the season. Or, to put it another way, just how wrong the MoS twins opinions are going to prove this week ...

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The round's sole overs bet comes in the Suns v Roos game where the estimated overlay is greatest of all and is almost four goals in magnitude. Forecast showers for that game might reduce that overlay in practice.

Sunday's Melbourne v Geelong game is the only other one likely to be affected by rain, which in this case would be a good thing for our estimated overlay.